Table 3b.
Model with SFE | Model with sentiment | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Regime 1 | Regime 2 | Regime 1 | Regime 2 | |
Age | −0.082 | 0.687 | −0.094 | 0.676 |
[0.091] | [0.065]** | [0.091] | [0.065]** | |
Age-squared | 0.092 | −0.678 | 0.102 | −0.667 |
[0.094] | [0.074]** | [0.094] | [0.074]** | |
Less than high school | 1.248 | 1.295 | 1.207 | 1.267 |
[0.501]* | [0.863] | [0.507]* | [0.867] | |
High school dropout | 0.381 | 1.246 | 0.420 | 1.180 |
[0.510] | [0.511]* | [0.526] | [0.501]* | |
Two year college | 0.591 | −0.866 | 0.492 | −0.932 |
[0.608] | [0.421]* | [0.600] | [0.414]* | |
College grad or above | 0.333 | −2.994 | 0.410 | −3.025 |
[0.610] | [0.523]** | [0.608] | [0.512]** | |
Male | 4.749 | 2.507 | 4.746 | 2.491 |
[0.380]** | [0.339]** | [0.379]** | [0.338]** | |
White | −2.436 | 5.644 | −2.419 | 5.532 |
[0.625]** | [0.459]** | [0.654]** | [0.453]** | |
Real cig tax | −1.606 | −5.465 | 0.815 | −4.616 |
[2.695] | [1.417]** | [2.226] | [1.302]** | |
Household income | −0.070 | −0.648 | −0.133 | −0.678 |
[0.398] | [0.563] | [0.379] | [0.543] | |
Regulation index d | −1.640 | −1.979 | −1.318 | −1.604 |
[0.089]** | [0.098]** | [0.088]** | [0.105]** | |
Anti smoking sentiment | 0.094 | −0.029 | ||
[0.190] | [0.087] | |||
Tax elasticity b | −0.010 | −0.072** | 0.005 | −0.061** |
Price elasticity a | −0.072 | −0.424** | 0.036 | −0.359** |
Income elasticity b,c | −0.004 | −0.038 | −0.007 | −0.039 |
Average real tax (unit: dollars) | 0.118 | 0.232 | 0.118 | 0.232 |
Average real price | 0.855 | 1.365 | 0.855 | 1.365 |
Average regulation index (range 0 – 10) | N/A | 6.301 | N/A | 6.301 |
Ratio of tax to price | 0.138 | 0.170 | 0.138 | 0.170 |
Start-point of gradual switch | 1964 | 1964 | 1964 | 1964 |
End-point of gradual switch | 1977 | 1977 | 1977 | 1977 |
Price elasticity is calculated with the formula: ηprice = ηtax(αTax/Price)−1. ηtax is tax elasticity in the associated regime, the ratio of Tax/Price is measured at the average, and we assume α = 1 that cigarette taxes are passed through to prices at the one-to-one ratio.
Tax elasticity is calculated by the formula of βtax×(Tax/Cigarettes) at the average; income elasticity is calculated by βincome×(Income/Cigarettes) at the average.
Income elasticities in regime 1 for model 1 and 2 are estimated in the year of 1969 which is the first year when income information is available.
Coefficients on regulation index in regime 1 for both models are for the year of 1969 which is the first wave when index is available.
The numbers in brackets are robust standard errors, adjusted for state-level clustering.
significant at 10%;
significant at 5%;
significant at 1%.