Table 2.

SARIMA regression of number of HFRS in Heilongjiang Province, China^*

Model	β	SE	t	P	95% CI
Constant	5.290	0.502	10.532	0.0001	4.306–6.274
Autoregression, lag 1	0.748	0.070	10.624	0.0001	0.611–0.885
Seasonal autoregression, lag 12	0.887	0.037	24.087	0.0001	0.814–0.960
Relative humidity (%), 1-month lag	−0.010	0.003	−3.266	0.002	–0.016 to –0.004
Relative humidity (%), 3-month lag	0.008	0.003	2.426	0.017	0.002–0.014
Curt root (MaxT), 2-month lag	0.082	0.028	2.917	0.004	0.027–0.137
Curt root (SOI), 2-month lag	−0.048	0.019	−2.602	0.011	–0.085 to –0.011

^*SARIMA = seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model; HFRS = hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome; CI = confidence interval; MaxT = monthly maximum temperature; SOI: southern oscillation index.