Table 5.

Estimated reduction in percentage (%) of human salmonellosis cases in the EU originating from the broiler reservoir [7,15] and the turkey reservoir [8,18] when compared to the baseline model under the different scenarios.

% reduction of all broiler-associated cases a				% reduction of all turkey-associated cases h
	Mean b	2.5% c	97.5% c		Mean b	2.5% c	97.5% c
Scenario 1 d	69.0	62.2	75.4	Scenario 1 i	0.4	0.1	1.3
Scenario 2 e	26.3	18.5	39.7	Scenario 2 j	83.2	79.0	87.4
Scenario 3 f	25.4	18.9	37.7
Scenario 4 g	93.4	92.9	94.1

^a The baseline model uses the broiler flock prevalences as obtained through the EU baseline survey in broiler flocks conducted in 2005–2006 [2]. The serovar distribution was obtained from the EU baseline survey in broiler carcasses in 2008 [17]; ^b Average or ‘centre of gravity’ of the uncertainty distribution; ^c Percentiles representing the low and high values across the range estimated by the model; ^d The prevalence of the 23 Salmonella serovars included is as reported by the MSs in 2009; ^e The prevalence of S. Enteritidis and S. Typhimurium is as reported by the MSs in 2009 (but keeping the prevalence for the other 21 serovars as per the 2005–2006 baseline survey in broiler flocks, [2]); ^f The combined prevalence of S. Enteritidis and S. Typhimurium = 1% (or less) and keeping the prevalence for the other 21 serovars as per the 2005–2006 baseline survey in broiler flocks [2]; ^g The combined prevalence of all serovars in the model = 1% (or less); ^h The baseline model applies the turkey flock prevalences and serovar distribution data from the 2010 EU statutory monitoring; ⁱ The combined prevalence of S. Enteritidis and S. Typhimurium = 1% (or less) and keeping the prevalence for the other 21 serovars as per the 2010 reporting from MSs in turkey flocks; ^j The combined prevalence of all serovars in the model = 1% (or less).