Table 3.
Prediction of pCR using (a) simple logistic regression model, (b) multiple logistic regression model with Ki67
| Factor | # pat | # res | OR | 95 %CI | p value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | |||||
| Age | |||||
| ≤49 | 248 | 56 | 0.880 | 0.577–1.343 | 0.5534 |
| ≥50 | 229 | 57 | 1 | ||
| Initial tumor size | |||||
| ≤2.0 | 29 | 7 | 1.047 | 0.409–2.682 | 0.9919 |
| 2.1–4.0 | 315 | 75 | 1.028 | 0.637–1.659 | |
| ≥4.1 | 133 | 31 | 1 | ||
| Axillary lymph node | |||||
| Positive | 268 | 62 | 0.932 | 0.610–1.426 | 0.7467 |
| Negative | 209 | 51 | 1 | ||
| Menopausal status | |||||
| Pre | 266 | 60 | 0.868 | 0.568–1.326 | 0.5135 |
| Post | 211 | 53 | |||
| Stage | |||||
| I/IIa | 54 | 211 | 1.849 | 0.818–4.179 | 0.3355 |
| IIb | 51 | 215 | 1.671 | 0.738–3.786 | |
| III | 8 | 51 | 1 | ||
| Nuclear grading | |||||
| G1 | 78 | 9 | 0.240 | 0.112–0.517 | <.0001 |
| G2 | 229 | 46 | 0.463 | 0.293–0.731 | |
| G3 | 162 | 57 | 1 | ||
| ER and/or PgR | |||||
| Positive | 327 | 58 | 0.265 | 0.167–0.422 | <.0001 |
| Negative | 116 | 52 | 1 | ||
| HER2 | |||||
| Positive | 62 | 33 | 4.552 | 2.604–7.958 | <.0001 |
| Negative | 380 | 76 | 1 | ||
| Baseline of Ki67 (%) | |||||
| ≥10 | 299 | 95 | 4.572 | 2.348–8.903 | <.0001 |
| <10 | 119 | 11 | 1 | ||
| Continuous | 418 | 1.043 | 1.027–1.059 | <.0001 | |
| TP-CI | |||||
| 1 + , 2 + , 3+ | 282 | 73 | 1.715 | 0.851–3.456 | 0.1316 |
| 0 | 65 | 11 | 1 | ||
| 2 + , 3+ | 119 | 33 | 1.332 | 0.801–2.213 | 0.2690 |
| 0, 1+ | 228 | 51 | 1 | ||
| TP-SI | |||||
| 1 + , 2 + , 3+ | 324 | 84 | 4.025 | 0.929–17.438 | 0.0627 |
| 0 | 25 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 + , 3+ | 197 | 59 | 1.979 | 1.182–3.315 | 0.0095 |
| 0, 1+ | 152 | 27 | 1 |
| OR | 95 %CI | p value | Sensitivity specificity | ROC (95 % CI) | Contrast with final model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (b) | ||||||
| Grading | ||||||
| 1 | 0.312 | 0.129–0.756 | 0.0027 | Random cv | Apparent | |
| 2 | 0.461 | 0.274–0.773 | Sen: 0.8113 | 0.7510 | ||
| 3 | 1 | (0.6034, 0.8958) | (0.6999, 0.8021) | |||
| ER and/or PgR | ||||||
| Positive | 0.384 | 0.230–0.642 | 0.0003 | |||
| Negative | 1 | Spe: 0.6097 | Random cv | |||
| HER2 | ||||||
| Positive | 3.816 | 2.056–7.081 | <.0001 | (0.5517, 0.7391) | 0.7353 | |
| Negative | 1 | (0.6664, 0.7901) | ||||
| Grading | ||||||
| 1 | 0.402 | 0.163–0.991 | 0.00281 | Random cv | Apparent | Apparent |
| 2 | 0.536 | 0.316–0.909 | Sen: 0.8000 | 0.7657 | 0.0147 | |
| 3 | 1 | (0.6599, 0.8889) | (0.7172, 0.8143) | (−0.0055, 0.0350) | ||
| ER and/or PgR | ||||||
| Positive | 00.413 | 0.247–0.692 | 0.0008 | |||
| Negative | 1 | Spe: 0.6458 | ||||
| HER2 | ||||||
| Positive | 3.522 | 1.890–6.563 | <.0001 | (0.5792, 0.7452) | Random cv | Random cv |
| Negative | 0.7489 | 0.0168 | ||||
| Ki67 (%) | ||||||
| ≥10 | 2.718 | 1.331–5.549 | 0.0061 | (0.6827, 0.7986) | (−0.0303, 0.041) | |
| <10 | 1 | |||||
| Grading | ||||||
| 1 | 0.418 | 0.169–1.035 | 0.0298 | Random cv | Apparent | Apparent |
| 2 | 0.530 | 0.312–0.900 | Sen: 0.8333 | 0.7774 | 0.0264 | |
| 3 | 1 | (0.6735, 0.9400) | (0.7289, 0.8259) | (0.0015, 0.0513) | ||
| ER and/or PgR | ||||||
| Positive | 0.447 | 0.265–0.754 | 0.0026 | |||
| Negative | 1 | Spe: 0.6344 | Random cv | Random cv | ||
| HER2 | ||||||
| Positive | 3.794 | 2.038–7.065 | <0.0001 | (0.5063, 0.7713) | 0.7607 | 0.0274 |
| Negative | 1 | (0.6993, 0.8099) | (−0.0175, 0.0596) | |||
| Ki67 (continuous) | 1.031 | 1.014–1.048 | 0.0004 |
#pat number of patients, #res number of responders, CI confidence interval, ER estrogen receptor, HER2 human epidermal growth factor receptor 2, OR odds ratio, PgR progesterone receptor, TP-CI thymidine phosphorylase, interstitial, TP-SI thymidine phosphorylase, stromal
ER estrogen receptor, HER2 human epidermal growth factor receptor 2, PgR progesterone receptor, OR odds ratio