(A) The three typical states of PC12 cells. Whereas proliferating cells are usually rounded, differentiated cells have extended neurites, and dead cells are recognized as shrunken or fragmented cell bodies. EGF, epidermal growth factor; NGF, nerve growth factor. The values of proliferating (), differentiated (), and dead () cells denote densities of each cell. Five parameters describe the transition rates of proliferation (), differentiation (), de-differentiation (), cell death from (), and cell death from (). We made a mathematical model of differential equations and estimated those five parameters using Bayesian inference. Details are shown in the Models section. (B) The experimental procedures used involved photographing randomly sampled places ( or ) on a dish, and then counting the numbers of cells with features of each of the three states defined above. Means () and variances () of the number of cells in each state were calculated by analysis of the entire surface of each dish.