TABLE 1—

Final Noise and Intervention Models for the Effect of the 2006 Russian Alcohol Policy on the Number of Monthly Suicide Deaths

Noise model	Intervention model
Male suicide deaths
ARIMA Lg(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12	Yt* = at + ω0It
(1 – θ1B)(1 – θ12B12) at = (1 – B)(1 – B12)Yt	It = 0 for observations 1–72
θ1 = −0.589, P < .001	It = 1 for observations 73–132
θ12 = −0.692, P < .001	ω0 = −0.096; P = .01
	Q = 21.9; df = 18; P = .24
Female suicide deaths
ARIMA Lg(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12	Yt* = at + ω0It
(1 – θ1B)(1 – θ12B12) at = (1 – B)(1 – B12)Yt	It = 0 for observations 1–72
θ1 = −0.721; P < .001	It = 1 for observations 73–132
θ12 = −0.758; P < .001	ωo = −0.041; P = .34
	Q = 36.0; df = 18; P = .11

Note. ARIMA = autoregressive integrated moving average; Lg = natural logarithm transformation; θ = moving average parameter; B = backward shift operator; ω₀ = zero-order input parameter of a transfer function; I_t = intervention series; Q = Ljung-Box test statistic for the null hypothesis that the model residuals are distributed as white noise.