TABLE 1—
US Black and White Infant Death Rates and Jim Crow Cohort Effects, by Jim Crow Polity: 1960–2006
| Jim Crow Polity |
Non–Jim Crow Polity |
Cohort-Specific Jim Crow Effect |
|||||||||
| Type of Effect | Deaths | Person-Years | Rate per 1000 (95% CI) | Deaths | Person-Years | Rate per 1000 (95% CI) | No State or County Effects, IRR (95% CI) | Random State Intercepts, IRR (95% CI) | Random State Intercepts + Random State by Cohort Interactions, IRR (95% CI) | Random State Intercepts and Random State by Cohort Interactions + County Random Effects, IRR (95% CI) | Random State Intercepts and Random State by Cohort Interactions + County Random Effects + County Income, IRR (95% CI) |
| Black | |||||||||||
| Cohort effects | |||||||||||
| 1960–1964 | 86 234 | 1 757 858 | 49.1 (48.7, 49.4) | 49 436 | 1 196 569 | 41.3 (41.0, 41.7) | 1.19 (1.18, 1.20) | 1.21 (1.08, 1.36) | 1.11 (0.98, 1.26) | 1.13 (1.00, 1.27) | 1.08 (0.97, 1.22) |
| 1965–1969 | 63 464 | 1 509 532 | 42.0 (41.7, 42.4) | 45 567 | 1 154 192 | 39.5 (39.1, 39.8) | 1.07 (1.05, 1.08) | 1.09 (0.97, 1.22) | 0.90 (0.80, 1.03) | 0.92 (0.82, 1.04) | 0.89 (0.79, 1.00) |
| 1970–1974 | 44 501 | 1 353 443 | 32.9 (32.6, 33.2) | 35 050 | 1 078 782 | 32.5 (32.2, 32.8) | 1.01 (1.00, 1.03) | 1.03 (0.92, 1.16) | 1.09 (0.96, 1.25) | 1.09 (0.96, 1.23) | 1.05 (0.93, 1.19) |
| 1975–1979 | 36 463 | 1 319 503 | 27.6 (27.4, 27.9) | 28 284 | 1 028 877 | 27.5 (27.2, 27.8) | 1.01 (0.99, 1.02) | 1.03 (0.91, 1.16) | 1.13 (0.99, 1.30) | 1.13 (0.99, 1.27) | 1.09 (0.97, 1.23) |
| 1980–1984 | 32 107 | 1 456 421 | 22.0 (21.8, 22.3) | 26 018 | 1 115 331 | 23.3 (23.0, 23.6) | 0.95 (0.93, 0.96) | 0.97 (0.86, 1.08) | 1.02 (0.89, 1.17) | 1.02 (0.90, 1.15) | 0.99 (0.88, 1.12) |
| 1985–1989 | 30 752 | 1 526 045 | 20.2 (19.9, 20.4) | 27 343 | 1 212 897 | 22.5 (22.3, 22.8) | 0.89 (0.88, 0.91) | 0.91 (0.81, 1.02) | 1.04 (0.91, 1.19) | 1.03 (0.91, 1.16) | 1.00 (0.89, 1.13) |
| 1990–1994 | 29 592 | 1 717 586 | 17.2 (17.0, 17.4) | 26 998 | 1 443 682 | 18.7 (18.5, 18.9) | 0.92 (0.91, 0.94) | 0.94 (0.83, 1.05) | 1.04 (0.91, 1.18) | 1.01 (0.89, 1.15) | 0.99 (0.87, 1.12) |
| 1995–1999 | 24 388 | 1 640 890 | 14.9 (14.7, 15.0) | 19 504 | 1 303 910 | 15.0 (14.7, 15.2) | 0.99 (0.98, 1.01) | 1.01 (0.90, 1.14) | 1.13 (0.99, 1.29) | 1.10 (0.97, 1.25) | 1.08 (0.95, 1.22) |
| 2000–2004 | 24 996 | 1 830 446 | 13.7 (13.5, 13.8) | 17 693 | 1 420 818 | 12.5 (12.3, 12.6) | 1.10 (1.08, 1.12) | 1.11 (0.99, 1.25) | 1.27 (1.11, 1.45) | 1.23 (1.09, 1.39) | 1.21 (1.07, 1.36) |
| 2005–2006 | 10 482 | 802 087 | 13.1 (12.8, 13.3) | 7 071 | 584 501 | 12.1 (11.8, 12.4) | 1.08 (1.05, 1.11) | 1.10 (0.97, 1.23) | 1.26 (1.09, 1.45) | 1.23 (1.08, 1.40) | 1.21 (1.06, 1.37) |
| P for Jim Crow by cohort effect | < .001 | < .001 | .003 | .003 | .001 | ||||||
| State-level random effect | 0.0426 (0.0097) | 0.0103 (0.0037) | 0.0083 (0.0038) | 0.0075 (0.0035) | |||||||
| State by cohort interaction random effect | 0.0379 (0.0034) | 0.0290 (0.0027) | 0.0287 (0.0027) | ||||||||
| County random effect | 0.0663 (0.0033) | 0.0645 (0.0033) | |||||||||
| County income quintile fixed effect | |||||||||||
| Q1 (lowest) | 1.13 (1.11, 1.16) | ||||||||||
| Q2 | 1.15 (1.13, 1.18) | ||||||||||
| Q3 | 1.10 (1.08, 1.12) | ||||||||||
| Q4 | 1.07 (1.06, 1.09) | ||||||||||
| Q5 (highest; Ref) | 1.00 | ||||||||||
| White | |||||||||||
| Cohort effects | |||||||||||
| 1960–1964 | 137 655 | 5 549 933 | 24.8 (24.7, 24.9) | 247 872 | 11 397 912 | 21.7 (21.7, 21.8) | 1.14 (1.13, 1.15) | 1.18 (1.09, 1.29) | 1.15 (1.07, 1.24) | 1.13 (1.07, 1.21) | 1.15 (1.08, 1.22) |
| 1965–1969 | 103 755 | 5 050 307 | 20.5 (20.4, 20.7) | 193 735 | 10 466 009 | 18.5 (18.4, 18.6) | 1.11 (1.10, 1.12) | 1.16 (1.06, 1.26) | 1.15 (1.07, 1.25) | 1.14 (1.08, 1.22) | 1.16 (1.09, 1.23) |
| 1970–1974 | 85 102 | 4 890 928 | 17.4 (17.3, 17.5) | 141 564 | 9 330 582 | 15.2 (15.1, 15.3) | 1.15 (1.14, 1.16) | 1.20 (1.10, 1.30) | 1.13 (1.05, 1.23) | 1.13 (1.06, 1.20) | 1.14 (1.07, 1.21) |
| 1975–1979 | 63 672 | 4 764 425 | 13.4 (13.3, 13.5) | 104 154 | 8 318 181 | 12.5 (12.4, 12.6) | 1.07 (1.06, 1.08) | 1.11 (1.02, 1.21) | 1.10 (1.02, 1.19) | 1.09 (1.03, 1.16) | 1.11 (1.04, 1.18) |
| 1980–1984 | 56 974 | 5 219 053 | 10.9 (10.8, 11.0) | 90 952 | 8 775 090 | 10.4 (10.3, 10.4) | 1.05 (1.04, 1.06) | 1.10 (1.01, 1.20) | 1.08 (1.00, 1.17) | 1.08 (1.01, 1.15) | 1.09 (1.02, 1.16) |
| 1985–1989 | 50 667 | 5 523 983 | 9.2 (9.1, 9.3) | 81 290 | 9 090 874 | 8.9 (8.9, 9.0) | 1.03 (1.01, 1.04) | 1.07 (0.98, 1.17) | 1.10 (1.02, 1.19) | 1.10 (1.03, 1.17) | 1.11 (1.04, 1.18) |
| 1990–1994 | 43 175 | 5 809 313 | 7.4 (7.4, 7.5) | 69 530 | 9 718 433 | 7.2 (7.1, 7.2) | 1.04 (1.03, 1.05) | 1.09 (0.99, 1.18) | 1.11 (1.03, 1.20) | 1.11 (1.04, 1.18) | 1.12 (1.05, 1.19) |
| 1995–1999 | 38 304 | 5 866 374 | 6.5 (6.5, 6.6) | 55 114 | 9 019 432 | 6.1 (6.1, 6.2) | 1.07 (1.05, 1.08) | 1.12 (1.02, 1.22) | 1.13 (1.04, 1.22) | 1.13 (1.06, 1.20) | 1.14 (1.07, 1.21) |
| 2000–2004 | 39 635 | 6 371 746 | 6.2 (6.2, 6.3) | 51 504 | 9 169 004 | 5.6 (5.6, 5.7) | 1.11 (1.09, 1.12) | 1.16 (1.06, 1.26) | 1.17 (1.08, 1.27) | 1.17 (1.10, 1.25) | 1.19 (1.11, 1.27) |
| 2005–2006 | 16 716 | 2 683 092 | 6.2 (6.1, 6.3) | 20 201 | 3 697 683 | 5.5 (5.4, 5.5) | 1.14 (1.12, 1.16) | 1.19 (1.09, 1.30) | 1.21 (1.11, 1.31) | 1.21 (1.13, 1.29) | 1.22 (1.14, 1.31) |
| P for Jim Crow by cohort effect | < .001 | < .001 | .143 | .114 | .111 | ||||||
| State-level random effect | 0.0244 (0.0050) | 0.0114 (0.0026) | 0.0028 (0.0011) | 0.0028 (0.0011) | |||||||
| State by cohort interaction random effect | 0.0078 (0.0006) | 0.0079 (0.0006) | 0.0080 (0.0007) | ||||||||
| County random effect | 0.0368 (0.0012) | 0.0370 (0.0012) | |||||||||
| County income quintile fixed effect | |||||||||||
| Q1 (lowest) | 0.98 (0.97, 0.99) | ||||||||||
| Q2 | 1.02 (1.01, 1.03) | ||||||||||
| Q3 | 0.99 (0.98, 1.00) | ||||||||||
| Q4 | 1.02 (1.02, 1.03) | ||||||||||
| Q5 (highest; Ref) | 1.00 | ||||||||||
Note. CI = confidence interval; IRR = incidence rate ratio.