TABLE 2—
US Black vs White Differences in Infant Death Rates and Jim Crow Birth Cohort Effects, by Jim Crow Polity: 1960–2006
| Cohort-Specific Race Effect |
|||||||
| Type of Effect | White, Rate per 1000 (95% CI) | Black, Rate per 1000 (95% CI) | No State Effects, IRR (95% CI) | Random State Intercepts, IRR (95% CI) | Random State Intercepts + Random State by Cohort Interactions, IRR (95% CI) | Random State Intercepts and Random State by Cohort Interactions + County Random Effects, IRR (95% CI) | Random State Intercepts and Random State by Cohort Interactions + County Random Effects + County Income, IRR (95% CI) |
| Jim Crow polity | |||||||
| Cohort effects | |||||||
| 1960–1964 | 24.8 (24.7, 24.9) | 49.1 (48.7, 49.4) | 1.98 (1.96, 1.99) | 1.96 (1.94, 1.97) | 1.96 (1.94, 1.97) | 1.89 (1.88, 1.91) | 1.89 (1.87, 1.91) |
| 1965–1969 | 20.5 (20.4, 20.7) | 42.0 (41.7, 42.4) | 2.05 (2.03, 2.07) | 2.02 (2.00, 2.04) | 2.04 (2.02, 2.06) | 1.97 (1.95, 1.99) | 1.96 (1.94, 1.98) |
| 1970–1974 | 17.4 (17.3, 17.5) | 32.9 (32.6, 33.2) | 1.89 (1.87, 1.91) | 1.88 (1.85, 1.90) | 1.89 (1.87, 1.91) | 1.83 (1.81, 1.85) | 1.83 (1.81, 1.85) |
| 1975–1979 | 13.4 (13.3, 13.5) | 27.6 (27.4, 27.9) | 2.07 (2.04, 2.09) | 2.06 (2.03, 2.09) | 2.08 (2.05, 2.11) | 2.01 (1.98, 2.04) | 2.01 (1.99, 2.04) |
| 1980–1984 | 10.9 (10.8, 11.0) | 22.0 (21.8, 22.3) | 2.02 (1.99, 2.05) | 2.02 (1.99, 2.05) | 2.01 (1.98, 2.04) | 1.94 (1.91, 1.97) | 1.94 (1.91, 1.97) |
| 1985–1989 | 9.2 (9.1, 9.3) | 20.2 (19.9, 20.4) | 2.20 (2.17, 2.23) | 2.20 (2.16, 2.23) | 2.16 (2.13, 2.20) | 2.08 (2.05, 2.11) | 2.08 (2.05, 2.11) |
| 1990–1994 | 7.4 (7.4, 7.5) | 17.2 (17.0, 17.4) | 2.32 (2.28, 2.35) | 2.32 (2.28, 2.35) | 2.29 (2.25, 2.32) | 2.21 (2.17, 2.24) | 2.20 (2.17, 2.24) |
| 1995–1999 | 6.5 (6.5, 6.6) | 14.9 (14.7, 15.0) | 2.27 (2.24, 2.31) | 2.28 (2.25, 2.32) | 2.25 (2.21, 2.29) | 2.18 (2.14, 2.22) | 2.18 (2.14, 2.21) |
| 2000–2004 | 6.2 (6.2, 6.3) | 13.7 (13.5, 13.8) | 2.19 (2.16, 2.23) | 2.20 (2.17, 2.24) | 2.16 (2.13, 2.20) | 2.10 (2.07, 2.14) | 2.10 (2.07, 2.14) |
| 2005–2006 | 6.2 (6.1, 6.3) | 13.1 (12.8, 13.3) | 2.10 (2.05, 2.15) | 2.11 (2.06, 2.16) | 2.07 (2.02, 2.13) | 2.03 (1.98, 2.08) | 2.03 (1.98, 2.08) |
| P for Jim Crow by cohort effect | < .001 | < .001 | < .001 | < .001 | < .001 | ||
| State-level random effect | 0.0064 (0.0020) | 0.0049 (0.0017) | 0.0035 (0.0016) | 0.0030 (0.0015) | |||
| State by cohort interaction random effect | 0.0057 (0.0007) | 0.0056 (0.0006) | 0.0063 (0.0007) | ||||
| County random effect | 0.0388 (0.0002) | 0.0379 (0.0016) | |||||
| County income quintile fixed effect | |||||||
| Q1 (lowest) | 1.13 (1.11, 1.15) | ||||||
| Q2 | 1.19 (1.16, 1.21) | ||||||
| Q3 | 1.10 (1.08, 1.12) | ||||||
| Q4 | 1.09 (1.08, 1.11) | ||||||
| Q5 (highest; Ref) | 1.00 | ||||||
| Non–Jim Crow polity | |||||||
| Cohort effects | |||||||
| 1960–1964 | 21.7 (21.7, 21.8) | 41.3 (41.0, 41.7) | 1.90 (1.88, 1.92) | 1.90 (1.88, 1.91) | 1.93 (1.91, 1.95) | 1.79 (1.77, 1.81) | 1.79 (1.77, 1.81) |
| 1965–1969 | 18.5 (18.4, 18.6) | 39.5 (39.1, 39.8) | 2.13 (2.11, 2.15) | 2.12 (2.10, 2.15) | 2.13 (2.11, 2.15) | 1.96 (1.94, 1.98) | 1.95 (1.93, 1.97) |
| 1970–1974 | 15.2 (15.1, 15.3) | 32.5 (32.2, 32.8) | 2.14 (2.12, 2.17) | 2.13 (2.11, 2.16) | 2.14 (2.11, 2.16) | 1.97 (1.94, 1.99) | 1.96 (1.94, 1.99) |
| 1975–1979 | 12.5 (12.4, 12.6) | 27.5 (27.2, 27.8) | 2.20 (2.17, 2.22) | 2.19 (2.16, 2.22) | 2.17 (2.15, 2.20) | 2.01 (1.98, 2.04) | 2.01 (1.98, 2.04) |
| 1980–1984 | 10.4 (10.3, 10.4) | 23.3 (23.0, 23.6) | 2.25 (2.22, 2.28) | 2.24 (2.21, 2.28) | 2.22 (2.19, 2.25) | 2.05 (2.02, 2.08) | 2.05 (2.02, 2.08) |
| 1985–1989 | 8.9 (8.9, 9.0) | 22.5 (22.3, 22.8) | 2.52 (2.49, 2.56) | 2.52 (2.48, 2.55) | 2.47 (2.44, 2.51) | 2.29 (2.26, 2.33) | 2.29 (2.26, 2.33) |
| 1990–1994 | 7.2 (7.1, 7.2) | 18.7 (18.5, 18.9) | 2.61 (2.57, 2.65) | 2.61 (2.57, 2.64) | 2.57 (2.54, 2.61) | 2.39 (2.36, 2.43) | 2.40 (2.36, 2.43) |
| 1995–1999 | 6.1 (6.1, 6.2) | 15.0 (14.7, 15.2) | 2.44 (2.40, 2.48) | 2.44 (2.40, 2.48) | 2.41 (2.37, 2.45) | 2.24 (2.20, 2.28) | 2.25 (2.21, 2.29) |
| 2000–2004 | 5.6 (5.6, 5.7) | 12.5 (12.3, 12.6) | 2.22 (2.18, 2.25) | 2.22 (2.18, 2.25) | 2.18 (2.14, 2.22) | 2.04 (2.00, 2.07) | 2.04 (2.01, 2.08) |
| 2005–2006 | 5.5 (5.4, 5.5) | 12.1 (11.8, 12.4) | 2.21 (2.15, 2.27) | 2.22 (2.16, 2.28) | 2.20 (2.13, 2.26) | 2.06 (2.00, 2.12) | 2.07 (2.01, 2.13) |
| P for Jim Crow by cohort effect | < .001 | < .001 | < .001 | < .001 | < .001 | ||
| State-level random effect | 0.0060 (0.0016) | 0.0055 (0.0017) | 0.0029 (0.0013) | 0.0029 (0.0014) | |||
| State by cohort interaction random effect | 0.0074 (0.0007) | 0.0071 (0.0007) | 0.0071 (0.0007) | ||||
| County random effect | 0.0392 (0.0016) | 0.0324 (0.0016) | |||||
| County income quintile fixed effect | |||||||
| Q1 (lowest) | 0.96 (0.95, 0.98) | ||||||
| Q2 | 1.00 (0.98, 1.01) | ||||||
| Q3 | 1.00 (0.99, 1.01) | ||||||
| Q4 | 1.02 (1.01, 1.03) | ||||||
| Q5 (highest; Ref) | 1.00 | ||||||
Note. CI = confidence interval; IRR = incidence rate ratio.