Table 3.
Identification of high-risk men based on the 20-year risk prediction model with respect to the number of risk factors, according to strategies aiming to (A) reducing the fraction of missed events; and (B) reducing unnecessary treatment
| Men at high risk |
Fraction of missed events (%) | Specificity (%) | Probability of event* (%) | FP/TP ratio | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n | % | |||||
| Strategy a: reduce the fraction of missed events | ||||||
| All | 2574 | 100.0 | 0.0 | – | 16.1 | 5.2 |
| 1+ Major risk factor† | 1842 | 71.6 | 13.7 | 32.5 | 19.5 | 4.1 |
| 20-year absolute risk >10% | 1645 | 63.9 | 9.1 | 41.2 | 22.9 | 3.4 |
| 20-year absolute risk >15% | 1169 | 45.4 | 22.1 | 60.9 | 27.7 | 2.6 |
| Strategy b: reduce unnecessary treatment | ||||||
| 2+ Major risk factors† | 828 | 32.2 | 50.4 | 73.6 | 24.9 | 3.0 |
| 20-year absolute risk >20% | 841 | 32.7 | 35.7 | 73.7 | 31.7 | 2.2 |
| 20-year absolute risk >30% | 415 | 16.1 | 62.6 | 88.9 | 37.4 | 1.7 |
Men, 35–69 years, CVD-free at baseline.
‘Missed’ events are events occurring among men not classified at ‘high risk’, that is, with 20-year absolute risk (or a number of risk factors) below the cut-off point.
*Kaplan-Meier estimate of the probability of event in the group (positive predicted value).
†Total cholesterol >240 mg/dL; HDL-cholesterol <40 mg/dL; systolic blood pressure >160 mm Hg; smoking; diabetes.
CVD, cardiovascular disease; FP, number of false positives; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; TP, number of true positives.