Table 4.
Identification of high-risk women based on the 20-year risk prediction model with respect to the number of risk factors, according to strategies aiming to (A) reducing the fraction of missed events; and (B) reducing unnecessary treatment
| Women at high risk | Fraction of missed events (%) | Specificity (%) | Probability of event* (%) | FP/TP ratio | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n | % | |||||
| Strategy a: reduce the fraction of missed events | ||||||
| All | 2673 | 100.0 | 0.0 | – | 6.1 | 15.3 |
| 1+ Major risk factor† | 1654 | 61.9 | 17.7 | 40.1 | 8.2 | 11.3 |
| 20-year absolute risk >2% | 1733 | 64.8 | 4.5 | 37.4 | 9.0 | 10.1 |
| 20-year absolute risk >5% | 1067 | 39.9 | 14.7 | 63.2 | 13.1 | 6.6 |
| Strategy b: reduce unnecessary treatment | ||||||
| 2+major risk factors† | 640 | 23.9 | 42.3 | 79.5 | 14.8 | 5.8 |
| 20-year absolute risk >8% | 698 | 26.1 | 22.7 | 77.1 | 18.2 | 4.5 |
| 20-year absolute risk >10% | 545 | 20.4 | 32.1 | 82.7 | 20.4 | 3.9 |
Women, 35–69 years, CVD-free at baseline.
‘Missed’ events are events occurring among women not classified at ‘high risk’, that is, with 20-year absolute risk (or a number of risk factors) below the cut-off point.
*Kaplan-Meier estimate of the probability of event in the group (positive predicted value).
†Total cholesterol >240 mg/dL; HDL-cholesterol <50 mg/dL; systolic blood pressure >160 mm Hg; smoking; diabetes. CVD, cardiovascular disease; FP, number of false positives; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; TP, number of true positives.