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. 2013 Oct;10(5):807–827. doi: 10.1177/1740774513497293

Trial success and futility

Mean subjects Mean duration (months) Total Pr(success) Probability of early success Probability of success at final evaluation Probability of early futility Probability of futility at final evaluation
Null 39,557 59 0.022 0.018 0.004 0.90 0.081
Alternative 39,395 56 0.91 0.89 0.023 0.01 0.078
One Works 39,658 66 0.79 0.73 0.057 0.094 0.12
Middle 39,641 66 0.76 0.71 0.049 0.09 0.15
Worse 34,683 29 0.00 0 0 1 0