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. 2013 Oct;10(5):807–827. doi: 10.1177/1740774513497293

Trial success and futility

Mean subjects Mean duration (months) Total Pr(success) Probability of early success Probability of success at final evaluation Probability of early futility Probability of futility at final evaluation
Null 39,504 59 0.021 0.020 0.001 0.91 0.074
Alternative 39,400 56 0.93 0.90 0.027 0.016 0.057
One Works 39,537 63 0.75 0.71 0.046 0.091 0.15
Middle 39,634 64 0.75 0.70 0.040 0.091 0.16
Worse 34,755 28 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00