Table 3.
Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo estimates of the date of the initiating tOPV dose
| VDPV category | Substitution category | Mean substitution ratea (×10−2) | Substitution rate (95% HPDb) | Mean total age (yr) | Age in yr (95% HPD) | Mean estimate for year of initiating tOPV dosec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VDPV2 | KTd | 1.47 | 0.65–2.28 | 18.5 | 9.7–29.5 | 1992 |
| VDPV2 | K′eS | 1.78 | 1.07–2.52 | 12.9 | 7.8–18.6 | 1998 |
| VDPV2 | B′fS | 0.16 | 0.05–0.29 | 17.1 | 6.9–38.5 | 1994 |
| VDPV2 | KT(1.1)g | [1.10] | 21.9 | 16.1–27.1 | 1989 | |
| VDPV3 | KT(1.1) | [1.10] | 23.3 | 15.8–29.8 | 1986 |
a
Expressed as nucleotide substitutions/site/year for each category of substitution in the P1/capsid region. Substitution categories were normalized to total sites as described previously (9). Estimates from the data set are shown without brackets.
b
HPD, highest posterior density.
c
Rounded to the nearest beginning of the year.
d
KT, estimated total nucleotide substitutions.
e
K′S, estimated synonymous substitutions normalized to total sites.
f
B′S, estimated synonymous transversions normalized to total sites.
g
KT(1.1) assumes a rate of total nucleotide substitution of 1.1 × 10−2 nt substitutions/site/year.