Table 3.

Adjusted association^* of changes in risk factors over 20 years and HRR in 2005–2006

	Change Over 20-Years*	Cumulative incidence or proportion†	OR§	(95% CI)
BMI change	4.9 (5.0)		1.33	(1.14, 1.54)
Waist circumference change	14.0 (10.2)		1.55	(1.31, 1.84)
Physical activity change	−77.9 (300.3)		1.35	(1.12, 1.63)
Percent change in physical activity	31.3 (311.8)		0.79	(0.57, 1.12)
Percent change in treadmill test duration	−28.7 (21.1)		3.52	(2.76, 4.46)
Depressive symptom score change	−1.6 (8.2)		0.85	(0.72, 1.02)
Incident hypertension		24.1	2.03	(1.38, 2.99)
Incident diabetes		7.6	2.06	(1.24, 3.42)
Incident metabolic syndrome		25.5	2.78	(1.92, 4.04)
Smoking status‡
Never (Referent)		53.8	1.0
Former		28.9	1.08	(0.68, 1.70)
Current		17.4	2.27	(1.46,3.53)

Model 1: Adjusted for age, race, sex and education and baseline HRR

^*Difference in the value between baseline and the 20-year follow-up visit

^†Cumulative incidence of the risk factor among those who were free from the condition at baseline. The analysis samples for hypertension, diabetes and metabolic syndrome were 2679,2632, and 2681, respectively.

^‡Proportion in 2005–2006

^§Odds ratios presented per SD change in risk factors over 20 years (continuous variables) or in participants with the incident condition as compared with those who did not develop it (referent).