Table 3.
Key predictions of the modes of transmission model for Morocco
| Population | HIV prevalence (%) | Number of PLHIV | HIV incidence | Percentage of total incidence (%) | Incidence among males | Incidence among females | Incidence of females/total (%) | HIV incidence/person-year (%) | Endemic prevalence (forecast) (%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IDUs | 2.00 | 370 | 197 | 5.72 | 177 | 21 | 10.4 | 1.07 | 11.34 |
| Sexual partners of IDUs | 1.00 | 93 | 28 | 0.82 | 3 | 25 | 89.6 | 0.31 | 3.54 |
| FSWs | 2.00 | 1337 | 497 | 14.41 | 0 | 497 | 100.0 | 0.74 | 8.19 |
| Clients | 0.50 | 3343 | 821 | 23.81 | 821 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.12 | 1.45 |
| Partners of clients | 0.25 | 874 | 268 | 7.78 | 0 | 268 | 100.0 | 0.08 | 0.91 |
| MSM | 2.00 | 891 | 465 | 13.49 | 465 | 0 | 0.0 | 1.04 | 11.13 |
| Female partners of MSM | 1.00 | 89 | 27 | 0.79 | 0 | 27 | 100.0 | 0.30 | 3.52 |
| Casual heterosexual sex | 0.22 | 2255 | 82 | 2.39 | 72 | 11 | 13.0 | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| Partners of casual heterosexual sex | 0.11 | 498 | 152 | 4.40 | 2 | 149 | 98.5 | 0.03 | 0.40 |
| Low-risk heterosexual sex | 0.08 | 8431 | 906 | 26.29 | 101 | 805 | 88.9 | 0.01 | 0.11 |
| No risk heterosexual sex | 0.03 | 1430 | 0 | 0.00 | – | – | – | – | – |
| Medical injections | 0.11 | – | 3 | 0.10 | 2 | 2 | 50.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Blood transfusions | 0.03 | – | 0 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Total adult population | 0.11 | 19 612 | 3446 | 100.0 | 1641 | 1805 | 52.4 | 0.02 | 0.23 |
*Forecast assuming the current HIV incidence as predicted by the MoT model.
PLHIV, people living with HIV/AIDS; IDU, injecting drug user; FSW, female sex worker; MSM, men who have sex with men