Table 1.

Parameter Estimates for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Novel First-Line Treatment Regimens for Tuberculosis.

Parameter	Value	Sensitivity Range	Notes/References
Adherence, per 2 months	0.97	0.95–0.98	Fit to global treatment success rate(15)
Probability of TB Cure (no recurrence)
No treatment	0.3	0–0.5	Natural history(20)
<2 months of standard therapy	0.3	0–0.5	Natural history(20)
2–4 months of standard therapy	0.69	0.3–0.86	2-month regimen(21)
4–6 months of standard therapy	0.87	0.7–0.95	4-month regimen(3)
Full course of treatment	0.97	0.95–0.98	6-month regimen(19)
Probability of Death
Treated TB	0.04	0.03–0.12	WHO notifications(15)
Recurrent TB	0.165	0.04–0.3	Global TB mortality(15)
Costs
Drugs, standard regimen, per day
Intensive Phase (2 months)	$0.24	$0.07-$0.60	Global Drug Facility(23)
Continuation Phase (4 months)	$0.15	$0.04-$0.29
Drugs, 4-month regimen, per day	$1.00	See Fig. 3	Assumed
Drugs, 2-month regimen, per day	$5.00		Assumed
Treatment Delivery costs, per month:			WHO notifications(15)
Low
Intensive Phase	$24.53	See Fig. 3
Continuation Phase	$11.42	See Fig. 3
Moderate
Intensive Phase	$49.53
Continuation Phase	$23.92
High
Intensive Phase	$238
Continuation Phase	$118
DALYs suffered			Disability 0.271(25), age
Cured TB (6 months disability)	0.19	0–0.26	35, 35-year life
Recurrent TB (6 + 12 months)	0.56	0–0.7	expectancy, 3%
Never-treated TB (12 + 12 months)	0.73	0–1.0	discounting
TB Death	24.36	15–30