Table 3.

ARIMA model parameters

Model	Parameter		Estimate	SE	t	Significance
Males*	Independent variable (three period delay)	Lag 0	−11.81	3.23	−3.65	0.00
		Lag 1	12.85	3.23	3.97	0.00
Females*†	AR	Lag 1	0.75	0.16	4.72	0.00
		Lag 2	−0.57	0.16	−3.62	0.00
Most-deprived wards*‡	Independent variable (three period delay)	Lag 0	−43.65	18.32	−2.38	0.03
Middle-ranked wards*	Independent variable (three period delay)	Lag 0	−60.28	13.70	−4.40	0.00
Most-affluent wards*§	Constant		−0.02	0.02	−1.37	0.18

*Difference order 1.

†Square transformation.

‡Seasonal difference order 1.

§Natural log transformation.