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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2013 Dec 2.
Published in final edited form as: J Geophys Res. 2011 Dec 22;116(D24):10.1029/2011JD016458. doi: 10.1029/2011JD016458

Figure 8.

Figure 8

Time of emergence of summer warming beyond the baseline variability for individual realizations of the high-resolution ensemble and the CMIP3 AOGCM ensemble. The annual and decadal timings are calculated as in Figure 1.The left panels show the emergence values for the southwestern U.S. (31.6-43.8°N, 123.6-105.6°W). The right panels show the emergence values for the central U.S. (32.0-44.0°N, 102.4-82.7°W). For these regional emergence calculations, we first create a regional temperature timeseries and then calculate the time of permanent emergence from that regional series. The horizontal axis is the standard deviation over the 1970-1999 period, with the vertical lines showing the observed value over the region. The vertical axis is the regional temperature trend over the 21st century.