Table 3.
Predicted and error rates of the single ARIMA model and ARIMA-BPNN combined model in 2012
|
Month |
Morbidity (per 100,000 pop.) |
ARIMA model |
ARIMA-BPNN model |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predicted rate | Error rate | Predicted rate | Error rate | ||
| Jan |
0.226 |
0.362 |
0.602 |
0.345 |
0.527 |
| Feb |
0.317 |
0.334 |
0.054 |
0.331 |
0.044 |
| Mar |
0.282 |
0.347 |
0.230 |
0.306 |
0.085 |
| Apr |
0.252 |
0.293 |
0.163 |
0.282 |
0.119 |
| May |
0.265 |
0.215 |
0.189 |
0.254 |
0.042 |
| Jun |
0.200 |
0.161 |
0.195 |
0.214 |
0.070 |
| Jul |
0.139 |
0.152 |
0.094 |
0.165 |
0.187 |
| Aug |
0.126 |
0.135 |
0.071 |
0.126 |
0.000 |
| Sep |
0.096 |
0.138 |
0.438 |
0.117 |
0.219 |
| Oct |
0.104 |
0.140 |
0.346 |
0.131 |
0.260 |
| Nov |
0.113 |
0.162 |
0.434 |
0.174 |
0.540 |
| Dec |
0.191 |
0.156 |
0.183 |
0.187 |
0.021 |
| MER | 0.250 | 0.176 | |||
ARIMA, Autoregressive integrated moving average model; BPNN, Back propagation neural network; MER, Mean error rate.