Table 2.

Estimated fiscal multipliers, adjusted for unemployment rates, interest rates, trade balance (net exports), and domestic investment

a. Fiscal multiplier for total government spending
	Gross domestic product adjusted for inflation and purchasing-power parity
Covariates	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
Total government spending	1.61**	1.60**	1.38**	1.10**	0.64**
	(0.12)	(0.15)	(0.17)	(0.10)	(0.13)
Unemployment rate	—	−248.28**	−258.67**	−364.58**	−205.14
		(65.84)	(86.17)	(94.99)	(131.78)
Interest rate	—	—	−320.26**	−304.69**	−269.42**
			(94.24)	(76.57)	(54.26)
Net exports (PPP, Real, per capita)	—	—	—	0.61**	1.31**
				(0.16)	(0.19)
Total domestic investment (PPP, Real, per capita)	—	—	—	—	1.12**
					(0.26)
Country-years	296	213	213	213	192
Number of countries	25	19	19	19	19
b. Fiscal multiplier for health spending
	Gross domestic product adjusted for inflation and purchasing-power parity
Covariates	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
Total health spending	4.32**	3.21**	2.07	2.23*	1.92**
	(0.88)	(0.98)	(1.21)	(0.90)	(0.53)
Total government spending minus health spending	1.05**	1.26**	1.25**	0.88**	0.39*
	(0.33)	(0.37)	(0.39)	(0.27)	(0.15)
Unemployment rate	—	−205.61**	−239.03*	−336.54**	−173.88
		(57.89)	(87.57)	(94.16)	(123.10)
Interest rate	—	—	−286.44**	−248.57**	−203.53**
			(83.05)	(58.98)	(47.45)
Net exports (PPP, Real, per capita)	—	—	—	0.64**	1.24**
				(0.17)	(0.17)
Total domestic investment (PPP, Real, per capita)	—	—	—	—	1.06**
					(0.25)
Country-years	296	213	213	213	192
Number of countries	25	19	19	19	19
c. Fiscal multiplier for defense spending
	Gross domestic product adjusted for inflation and purchasing-power parity
Covariates	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
Total defense spending	−9.83**	−13.17**	−12.92**	−8.51	−3.62
	(3.32)	(3.67)	(4.33)	(4.77)	(2.91)
Total government spending minus defense spending	1.66**	1.62**	1.42**	1.20**	0.71**
	(0.08)	(0.09)	(0.10)	(0.11)	(0.14)
Unemployment rate	—	−286.58**	−301.73**	−368.95**	−221.27
		(66.15)	(90.73)	(91.27)	(124.46)
Interest rate	—	—	−253.31*	−263.02**	−251.73**
			(96.90)	(84.62)	(55.96)
Net exports (PPP, Real, per capita)	—	—	—	0.47*	1.24**
				(0.20)	(0.18)
Total domestic investment (PPP, Real, per capita)	—	—	—	—	1.08**
					(0.25)
Country-years	296	213	213	213	192
Number of countries	25	19	19	19	19
d. Fiscal multiplier for education spending
	Gross domestic product adjusted for inflation and purchasing-power parity
Covariates	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
Total education spending	8.24**	6.53**	4.98	5.06**	3.16*
	(2.09)	(2.10)	(2.50)	(1.75)	(1.11)
Total government spending minus education spending	0.66*	0.88**	0.92**	0.59**	0.33
	(0.24)	(0.26)	(0.27)	(0.20)	(0.24)
Unemployment rate	—	−188.09**	−227.19**	−333.20**	−168.63
		(58.30)	(76.03)	(84.09)	(117.61)
Interest rate	—	—	−211.45	−184.21	−186.19**
			(127.38)	(97.00)	(61.05)
Net exports (PPP, Real, per capita)	—	—	—	0.63**	1.26**
				(0.15)	(0.17)
Total domestic investment (PPP, Real, per capita)	—	—	—	—	1.11**
					(0.22)
Country-years	296	213	213	213	192
Number of countries	25	19	19	19	19
e. Fiscal multiplier for general public services spending
	Gross domestic product adjusted for inflation and purchasing-power parity
Covariates	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
Total general public services spending	0.62	1.37	2.44*	2.05*	0.81
	(0.68)	(0.71)	(0.89)	(0.88)	(0.58)
Total government spending minus general public services spending	1.75**	1.63**	1.21**	0.96**	0.62**
	(0.09)	(0.12)	(0.14)	(0.14)	(0.11)
Unemployment rate	—	−242.48**	−279.25**	−381.55**	−207.43
		(67.58)	(88.70)	(100.42)	(132.83)
Interest rate	—	—	−396.26**	−372.92**	−284.09**
			(97.04)	(84.44)	(59.63)
Net exports (PPP, Real, per capita)	—	—	—	0.60**	1.30**
				(0.16)	(0.19)
Total domestic investment (PPP, Real, per capita)	—	—	—	—	1.12**
					(0.27)
Country-years	296	213	213	213	192
Number of countries	25	19	19	19	19
f. Fiscal multiplier for culture&recreation spending
	Gross domestic product adjusted for inflation and purchasing-power parity
Covariates	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
Total culture & recreation spending	7.57	6.25	4.52	0.83	3.19
	(5.51)	(4.70)	(3.99)	(2.96)	(3.25)
Total government spending minus culture & recreation spending	1.34**	1.38**	1.24**	1.11**	0.57**
	(0.32)	(0.30)	(0.26)	(0.19)	(0.18)
Unemployment rate	—	−243.28**	−259.08**	−365.32**	−194.27
		(65.52)	(88.99)	(94.63)	(129.50)
Interest rate	—	—	−306.23**	−305.79**	−258.23**
			(98.71)	(77.59)	(54.23)
Net exports (PPP, Real, per capita)	—	—	—	0.61**	1.31**
				(0.16)	(0.18)
Total domestic investment (PPP, Real, per capita)	—	—	—	—	1.14**
					(0.26)
Country-years	296	213	213	213	192
Number of countries	25	19	19	19	19
g. Fiscal multiplier for community spending
	Gross domestic product adjusted for inflation and purchasing-power parity
Covariates	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
Total community spending	−2.50**	−2.32**	−1.57**	−0.91	−0.48
	(0.79)	(0.63)	(0.52)	(0.63)	(0.58)
Total government spending minus community spending	1.68**	1.67**	1.47**	1.19**	0.73**
	(0.10)	(0.13)	(0.15)	(0.09)	(0.11)
Unemployment rate	—	−231.99**	−255.56**	−351.38**	−198.19
		(58.31)	(85.00)	(90.87)	(129.65)
Interest rate	—	—	−254.50**	−260.82**	−248.63**
			(80.86)	(69.72)	(49.31)
Net exports (PPP, Real, per capita)	—	—	—	0.55**	1.22**
				(0.14)	(0.19)
Total domestic investment (PPP, Real, per capita)	—	—	—	—	1.03**
					(0.28)
Country-years	296	213	213	213	192
Number of countries	25	19	19	19	19
h. Fiscal multiplier for environment spending
	Gross domestic product adjusted for inflation and purchasing-power parity
Covariates	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
Total environment spending	8.39	1.03	−0.46	3.02	3.54
	(5.92)	(4.73)	(4.01)	(4.02)	(2.67)
Total government spending minus environment spending	1.50**	1.60**	1.40**	1.07**	0.59**
	(0.17)	(0.16)	(0.18)	(0.14)	(0.14)
Unemployment rate	—	−251.28**	−269.12**	−356.05**	−193.58
		(67.63)	(86.71)	(96.24)	(128.60)
Interest rate	—	—	−322.65**	−301.83**	−261.57**
			(94.54)	(78.69)	(56.92)
Net exports (PPP, Real, per capita)	—	—	—	0.62**	1.35**
				(0.16)	(0.18)
Total domestic investment (PPP, Real, per capita)	—	—	—	—	1.14**
					(0.26)
Country-years	296	213	213	213	192
Number of countries	25	19	19	19	19
i. Fiscal multiplier for economic affairs spending
	Gross domestic product adjusted for inflation and purchasing-power parity
Covariates	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
Total economic affairs spending	0.06	−0.06	0.03	−0.55	−0.29
	(0.38)	(0.45)	(0.40)	(0.35)	(0.28)
Total government spending minus economic affairs spending	1.83**	1.80**	1.58**	1.32**	0.84**
	(0.14)	(0.17)	(0.20)	(0.14)	(0.19)
Unemployment rate	—	−248.83**	−271.11**	−388.53**	−233.36
		(62.40)	(75.94)	(84.40)	(125.08)
Interest rate	—	—	−265.45**	−237.34**	−238.72**
			(91.29)	(74.14)	(50.65)
Net exports (PPP, Real, per capita)	—	—	—	0.66**	1.27**
				(0.13)	(0.18)
Total domestic investment (PPP, Real, per capita)	—	—	—	—	0.97**
					(0.26)
Country-years	296	213	213	213	192
Number of countries	25	19	19	19	19
j. Fiscal multiplier for social protection spending
	Gross domestic product adjusted for inflation and purchasing-power parity
Covariates	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
Total social protection spending	2.88**	3.25**	2.72**	2.21**	1.29*
	(0.45)	(0.49)	(0.64)	(0.49)	(0.53)
Total government spending minus social protection spending	0.83**	0.52	0.57	0.47*	0.36
	(0.27)	(0.26)	(0.31)	(0.20)	(0.20)
Unemployment rate	—	−289.73**	−323.90**	−410.46**	−254.49
		(61.01)	(85.98)	(94.19)	(142.36)
Interest rate	—	—	−211.82	−217.75*	−229.26**
			(101.48)	(80.13)	(59.17)
Net exports (PPP, Real, per capita)	—	—	—	0.57**	1.28**
				(0.17)	(0.21)
Total domestic investment (PPP, Real, per capita)	—	—	—	—	0.98**
					(0.31)
Country-years	296	213	213	213	192
Number of countries	25	19	19	19	19

Notes: Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered by country to reflect non-independence of sampling.

** p<0.01, * p<0.05.