Table 3.
Main effects
| Men |
Women |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
| A. Retirement benefits | ||||||||
| I(age<ERA) | −26.34*** (0.61) | −24.85*** (0.46) | −21.12*** (0.93) | 1.03*** (0.22) | −34.45*** (1.04) | −24.63*** (0.94) | −22.06***(1.13) | 0.19 (0.28) |
| R2 | 0.248 | 0.345 | 0.275 | 0.433 | 0.369 | 0.492 | 0.420 | 0.442 |
| Pre-policy mean | 37.93 | 37.93 | 37.93 | 49.82 | 52.09 | 52.09 | 52.09 | 52.61 |
| B. Employment | ||||||||
| I(age<ERA) | 12.09*** (0.45) | 9.75*** (0.30) | 7.50*** (0.47) | −0.17 (0.17) | 18.91*** (0.50) | 11.00*** (0.34) | 9.26*** (0.38) | −0.03 (0.12) |
| R2 | 0.196 | 0.385 | 0.300 | 0.355 | 0.225 | 0.410 | 0.331 | 0.342 |
| Pre-policy mean | 8.76 | 8.76 | 8.76 | 9.66 | 27.56 | 27.56 | 27.56 | 26.02 |
| C. Unemployment | ||||||||
| I(age<ERA) | 10.64*** (0.28) | 12.51*** (0.31) | 11.81*** (0.53) | −0.66*** (0.19) | 11.79*** (0.52) | 11.77*** (0.65) | 11.50*** (0.76) | −0.14 (0.22) |
| R2 | 0.045 | 0.108 | 0.097 | 0.128 | 0.025 | 0.086 | 0.077 | 0.119 |
| Pre-policy mean | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.72 | 4.07 | 4.07 | 4.07 | 4.28 |
| D. Disability | ||||||||
| I(age<ERA) | 1.90*** (0.65) | 1.01*** (0.16) | 0.66*** (0.12) | −0.19** (0.09) | 0.84*** (0.23) | 0.14*** (0.05) | 0.12*** (0.04) | −0.02 (0.04) |
| R2 | 0.025 | 0.293 | 0.292 | 0.273 | 0.012 | 0.156 | 0.156 | 0.161 |
| Pre-policy mean | 51.10 | 51.10 | 51.10 | 38.24 | 12.64 | 12.64 | 12.64 | 13.28 |
| E. Residual category | ||||||||
| I(age<ERA) | 1.71*** (0.09) | 1.58*** (0.09) | 1.14*** (0.10) | −0.01 (0.03) | 2.91*** (0.09) | 1.71*** (0.10) | 1.18*** (0.11) | −0.00 (0.03) |
| R2 | 0.009 | 0.019 | 0.022 | 0.031 | 0.009 | 0.095 | 0.112 | 0.075 |
| Pre-policy mean | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.56 | 3.65 | 3.65 | 3.65 | 3.81 |
| Controls | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Age range | 57-64 | 57-64 | 60-62.5 | 57-64 | 52-59 | 52-59 | 55-58.5 | 52-59 |
| Years | 1997-2010 | 1997-2010 | 1997-2010 | 1987-2000 | 1997-2010 | 1997-2010 | 1997-2010 | 1987-2000 |
| #Obs. | 8,731,826 | 8,731,826 | 2,796,527 | 8,441,943 | 9,391,883 | 9,391,883 | 4,199,444 | 8,275,754 |
| #Individuals | 440,537 | 440,537 | 318,272 | 422,068 | 495,714 | 495,714 | 378,103 | 402,520 |
Notes: This table displays estimates of equation (1). Standard errors, in parentheses, are clustered at the year-quarter of birth. Coefficient and standard errors are multiplied by 100 and should be interpreted as percentage points. All regressions include dummies for age in months and dummies for year-quarter. Additional controls in columns (2)-(4) and (6)-(8) are experience in last 15 years, blue-collar status, number of insurance years, annual earnings, average earnings in best 15 years, expected UI benefits, dummies for weeks of UI eligibility (20, 30, 39, 52, 78 weeks), expected retirement benefits, number of sick leave days benefits between ages 45-49 for women and ages 50-54 for men, dummies for industry, dummies for birth cohort at a quarterly frequency, dummies for birth cohort interacted with a second-order polynomial in calendar time, and dummies for age in months interacted with a second-order polynomial in calendar time. Reported pre-policy means are for men aged 60-61 and women aged 55-58.2 in 2000 (1990 in columns (4) and (8)). Significance levels:
1%
5%
*10%.