Table B.
Full Regression Results
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | Model 5** | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| ||||||
| Constraints* | Premiums | Risk Adjustment | Combined | Combined | Combined | |
|
| ||||||
| None | None | RA budget | RA budget Premium ratio | RA budget Premium ratio Half with no history | ||
| CMS-HCC Model Weights | w/history | w/o history | ||||
| Female 0–34 | $2,122 (10.10) | $953 (4.30) | $1,050 (5.54) | $1,326 (4.85) | $1,189 (4.48) | |
| Female 35–44 | $2,054 (7.97) | $877 (3.28) | $994 (4.12) | $1,225 (3.47) | $1,502 (4.51) | |
| Female 45–54 | $2,654 (10.99) | $1,138 (4.92) | $1,087 (4.86) | $1,031 (3.27) | $2,330 (7.39) | |
| Female 55–59 | $3,309 (8.82) | $1,407 (3.23) | $1,183 (3.25) | $1,041 (1.99) | $3,093 (6.14) | |
| Female 60–64 | $5,118 (11.74) | $3,227 (6.60) | $3,002 (7.04) | $3,246 (5.31) | $5,247 (8.93) | |
| Male 0–34 | $720 (2.84) | −$451 (−1.71) | −$349 (1.48) | −$232 (0.69) | $31 (0.09) | |
| Male 35–44 | $1,470 (5.06) | $289 (0.97) | $404 (1.46) | $422 (1.09) | $1,007 (2.51) | |
| Male 45–54 | $3,154 (11.26) | $1,606 (5.90) | $1,558 (5.88) | $1,743 (4.56) | $2,473 (6.71) | |
| Male 55–59 | $4,315 (10.38) | $2,428 (5.15) | $2,197 (5.42) | $1,017 (1.81) | $5,553 (9.40) | |
| Male 60–64 | $4,200 (8.33) | $2,336 (4.24) | $2,105 (4.24) | $1,659 (2.38) | $4,706 (6.63) | |
| Premiums | ||||||
| young_n_urban | $2,319 (7.49) | $1,027 (3.25) | $999 (88.40) | $945 (78.39) | ||
| young_m_urban | $2,780 (10.04) | $1,407 (4.90) | $1,363 (114.46) | $1,411 (135.86) | ||
| young_s_urban | $2,314 (11.22) | $1,039 (4.66) | $1,014 (149.53) | $1,028 (129.48) | ||
| young_w_urban | $2,295 (10.10) | $1,118 (4.61) | $977 (95.43) | $939 (84.22) | ||
| old_n_urban | $5,550 (12.57) | $1,930 (4.04) | $1,999 (88.40) | $1,889 (78.39) | ||
| old_m_urban | $6,166 (14.69) | $2,639 (5.78) | $2,725 (114.46) | $2,823 (135.86) | ||
| old_s_urban | $5,540 (18.09) | $1,978 (5.45) | $2,028 (149.53) | $2,056 (129.48) | ||
| old_w_urban | $5,034 (14.47) | $1,649 (4.18) | $1,954 (95.43) | $1,878 (84.22) | ||
| young_n_rural | $4,120 (4.63) | $2,443 (2.81) | $1,272 (39.02) | $1,388 (42.01) | ||
| young_m_rural | $2,425 (4.81) | $1,180 (2.37) | $1,039 (57.08) | $1,037 (54.90) | ||
| young_s_rural | $2,813 (6.46) | $1,390 (3.20) | $1,195 (64.65) | $1,245 (57.46) | ||
| young_w_rural | $2,518 (3.24) | $1,440 (1.89) | $571 (22.70) | $515 (19.17) | ||
| old_n_rural | $4,270 (3.46) | $253 (0.21) | $2,543 (39.02) | $2,777 (42.01) | ||
| old_m_rural | $5,155 (7.80) | $1,795 (2.66) | $2,079 (57.08) | $2,074 (54.90) | ||
| old_s_rural | $5,872 (10.45) | $2,025 (3.46) | $2,390 (64.65) | $2,490 (57.46) | ||
| old_w_rural | $2,771 (2.65) | −$467 (−0.45) | $1,143 (22.70) | $1,030 (19.17) | ||
| HCC | ||||||
| hcc_high_exp | $8,146 (9.26) | $8,164 (9.28) | $8,132 (9.24) | $10,614 (8.68) | ||
| hcc_low_exp | $2,574 (2.51) | $2,530 (2.47) | $2,564 (2.50) | $4,089 (2.74) | ||
| hcc1 | $2,076 (2.13) | $2,082 (2.14) | $2,065 (2.12) | $1,230 (0.85) | ||
| hcc2 | $2,398 (1.28) | $2,436 (1.30) | $2,441 (1.30) | $1,791 (0.63) | ||
| hcc5 | −$257 (−0.33) | −$292 (−0.37) | −$305 (0.39) | −$334 (0.31) | ||
| hcc7 | $13,959 (6.67) | $13,817 (6.60) | $13,770 (6.58) | $20,749 (6.18) | ||
| hcc10 | $1,816 (2.88) | $1,781 (2.82) | $1,776 (2.82) | $1,563 (1.73) | ||
| hcc19 | $3,792 (9.84) | $3,772 (9.77) | $3,761 (9.76) | $4,406 (8.04) | ||
| hcc27 | $2,642 (1.29) | $2,673 (1.31) | $2,703 (1.32) | −$1,385 (0.50) | ||
| hcc31 | −$2,743 (−1.58) | −$2,770 (−1.60) | −$2,758 (1.59) | −$2,888 (1.09) | ||
| hcc33 | $984 (0.50) | $904 (0.46) | $952 (0.49) | $2,848 (1.08) | ||
| hcc37 | $609 (0.59) | $666 (0.64) | $683 (0.66) | $2,489 (1.77) | ||
| hcc38 | $3,466 (3.61) | $3,416 (3.55) | $3,373 (3.51) | $2,187 (1.65) | ||
| hcc44 | $3,364 (1.53) | $3,431 (1.56) | $3,339 (1.52) | −$965 (0.19) | ||
| hcc52 | −$577 (−0.29) | −$645 (−0.33) | −$605 (0.31) | −$1,554 (0.50) | ||
| hcc55 | $4,906 (3.94) | $4,916 (3.95) | $4,927 (3.96) | $4,110 (2.48) | ||
| hcc74 | $812 (0.37) | $779 (0.36) | $762 (0.35) | $2,352 (0.63) | ||
| hcc75 | $2,035 (3.95) | $2,019 (3.92) | $2,032 (3.94) | $2,043 (2.84) | ||
| hcc77 | −$1,451 (−0.85) | −$1,526 (−0.90) | −$1,543 (0.91) | −$925 (0.39) | ||
| hcc80 | $3,617 (3.56) | $3,602 (3.54) | $3,576 (3.52) | $2,702 (1.85) | ||
| hcc82 | $5,847 (4.77) | $5,746 (4.69) | $5,738 (4.68) | $7,927 (4.27) | ||
| hcc83 | $2,347 (1.35) | $2,235 (1.29) | $2,287 (1.32) | −$475 (0.18) | ||
| hcc92 | $1,411 (1.15) | $1,266 (1.03) | $1,294 (1.05) | $1,646 (0.96) | ||
| hcc96 | $10,950 (6.60) | $10,788 (6.50) | $10,842 (6.53) | $4,926 (1.91) | ||
| hcc104 | $3,153 (3.52) | $3,125 (3.49) | $3,135 (3.50) | $2,771 (1.87) | ||
| hcc108 | $3,205 (5.74) | $3,218 (5.75) | $3,179 (5.69) | $4,361 (5.45) | ||
| hcc119 | $7,280 (7.37) | $7,246 (7.33) | $7,243 (7.33) | $1,705 (1.27) | ||
| hcc131 | $12,533 (5.68) | $12,514 (5.67) | $12,461 (5.65) | −$4,749 (1.06) | ||
| hcc155 | $1,361 (0.79) | $1,296 (0.75) | $1,268 (0.73) | −$725 (0.32) | ||
| hcc157 | $1,081 (1.03) | $1,122 (1.06) | $1,077 (1.02) | $328 (0.24) | ||
| hcc164 | $1,538 (0.70) | $1,417 (0.65) | $1,439 (0.66) | $2,608 (0.82) | ||
| hcc176 | $2,323 (4.35) | $2,306 (4.32) | $2,324 (4.35) | $1,492 (1.99) | ||
| RA budget constraint | 0 - | −36,706 (0.28) | −56,129 (0.43) | |||
| RA budget constraint | −1,900 (0.01) | |||||
| Age rating constraint | −31,460 (0.23) | −165,055 (0.91) | ||||
| Age rating constraint | −90,784 (0.51) | 96,215 (0.58) | ||||
| Age rating constraint | 94,962 (0.58) | 102,971 (2.14) | ||||
| Age rating constraint | 104,715 (2.20) | 19,990 (0.23) | ||||
| Age rating constraint | 21,436 (0.25) | 32,327 (0.33) | ||||
| Age rating constraint | 47,244 (0.49) | 85,705 (1.54) | ||||
| Age rating constraint | 98,093 (1.79) | 161 (1.71) | ||||
| Age rating constraint | 18 (1.03) | −138 (1.50) | ||||
| Restrict zero profit in region | −543 (0.73) | −534 (0.71) | ||||
| Restrict zero profit in region | −34 (0.08) | −32 (0.08) | ||||
| Restrict zero profit in region | −56 (0.16) | −38 (0.11) | ||||
| Restrict zero profit in region | −380 (0.59) | −332 (0.51) | ||||
| Restrict zero profit in region | 24 (0.09) | 36 (0.14) | ||||
| Restrict zero profit in region | 17 (0.07) | 1 0.00 | ||||
| Restrict zero profit in region | 26 (0.15) | 48 (0.27) | ||||
| Restrict zero profit in region | −34 (0.18) | −35 (0.18) | ||||
| R square | 0.120 | 0.169 | 0.171 | 0.167 | 0.146 | |
Source: MEPS, 2005–2009. N = 11,568, All dollar estimates reported in $2009, t-statistics in parentheses.
For the premium variables, the geographic regions are n=North, m=Midwest, s=South, and w=West, interacted with urban and rural indicators. Probability computed using beta distribution for restrictions.
*
RA budget constraint imposes that the average risk adjusted payment equal $2000. Premium ratio requires that within geographic regions, the ratio of premiums for older enrollees to younger enrollees be no more than 2:1. Half with no history implies that health status information is missing for (a randomly selected) half of the sample.
**
There are two budget constraints for model 5, one for people with history and the other for people without history.