Table 2.

Parameter estimates for smoking effects (Panel A) and radiation effects (Panel B) and modifying effects with 95% (likelihood-based) confidence intervals.

A. Smoking effect
Effect	Simple Additive	Generalized Multiplicative
ERR per 50 pack-years (born in 1915)
Gender-average	5.32 (4.10,6.70)	4.69 (3.65,5.94)
Male	3.48 (2.40,5.00)	3.60 (2.60,5.10)
Female	7.16 (5.20,9.70)	5.77 (4.10,7.90)
Female:Male ratio	2.15 (1.30,3.40)	1.61 (1.00,2.50)
Birth-cohort effect (% change per decade decrease in birth year)
% per decade decrease in birth year	0.38 (18%,61%)	0.33 (15%,54%)
Smoking-duration effect (log-linear)
Log(duration/50)	−0.30 (−1.26,0.60)	−0.24 (−1.20,0.69)
Log(duration/50) squared	−2.58 (−5.30,−0.63)	−2.51 (−5.20,−0.56)
Years since quitting effect
Power of years since quitting plus 1	−0.50 (−0.90,−0.29)	−0.47 (−0.77,−0.27)

B. Radiation effect
Effect	Radiation only	Simple Additive	Simple Multiplicative	Generalized Additive	Generalized Multiplicative
ERR per Gy (age 70, age-at-exposure 30, never-smoker)
Gender-averaged	0.83 (0.55,1.20)	0.98 (0.59,1.50)	0.68 (0.43,1.00)	0.65 (0.31,1.10)	0.59 (0.31,1.00)
Male	0.34 (0.15,0.60)	0.69 (0.26,1.30)	0.31 (0.13,0.56)	0.30 (0.01,0.56)	0.29 (0.10,0.62)
Female	1.31 (0.83,1.90)	1.27 (0.73,2.00)	1.06 (0.64,1.60)	1.00 (0.77,2.30)	0.90 (0.47,1.50)
Female:Male ratio	3.82 (2.00,9.00)	1.85 (0.84,5.10)	3.44 (1.70,9.00)	3.38 (1.40,11.0)	3.13 (1.60,7.00)
Attained-age effect (power)
Attained age	−2.00 (−4.0,−0.03)	−2.70 (−4.7,−0.6)	−2.50 (−4.5,−0.4)	−3.05 (−5.2,−0.9)	−2.78(−4.9,−0.7)
Age-at-exposure effect (% change per decade increase)
Age at exposure	21% (−6%,55%)	31% (−2%,77%)	26% (−5%,69%)	50% (9%,111%)	30% (−3%,77%)
Smoking-intensity effect
Packs per day	--	--	--	10.20 (4.6,17.0)	9.20 (3.8,15.0)
Packs per day squared	--	--	--	−15.30 (−30.0,5.4)	−16.6 (−30.0,−6.6)
Model and fit summary information
Deviance	9815.5	9428.7	9425.1	9415.7	9410.3
Parameters	14	26	26	28	28
AIC	9843.5	9480.7	9477.1	9471.7	9466.3