Table 2.
Multinomial probit model estimating the effect of selected variables on the probability of taking a first trip to Canada and to the United States.
| Characteristics | First trip to Canada | First trip to the U.S. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B | SE | B | SE | |
| Demographic background | ||||
| Age | −0.011 | 0.051 | 0.072*** | 0.027 |
| Age squared | 0.000 | 0.001 | −0.001*** | 0.0004 |
| Married | 0.547** | 0.235 | 0.115 | 0.100 |
| Minor children | 0.096** | 0.038 | 0.003 | 0.030 |
| Mexican occupation | ||||
| Out of labor force | — | — | — | — |
| Agricultural | 0.167 | 0.269 | 0.120 | 0.159 |
| Manual | 0.139 | 0.275 | 0.026 | 0.163 |
| Non-manual | 0.718 | 0.652 | 0.029 | 0.205 |
| Physical capital | ||||
| Owns farmland | 0.043 | 0.144 | 0.001 | 0.112 |
| Owns house | 0.021 | 0.136 | 0.015 | 0.091 |
| Owns business | 0.115 | 0.273 | 0.050 | 0.164 |
| Human capital | ||||
| Years of education | 0.003 | 0.020 | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| Went to Canada before U.S | — | — | 0.965*** | 0.202 |
| Went to U.S. before Canada | 0.467*** | 0.156 | — | — |
| Period | ||||
| <1980 | — | — | — | — |
| 1980–1989 | 0.939*** | 0.140 | 0.711*** | 0.105 |
| 1990–1999 | 1.083*** | 0.134 | 0.976*** | 0.089 |
| 2000–2005 | 0.562* | 0.213 | 1.126*** | 0.105 |
| Community | ||||
| Santo Tomás | — | — | — | — |
| San Pedro | 0.278 | 0.208 | 0.267*** | 0.094 |
| San Martín | 0.215 | 0.242 | 0.447*** | 0.151 |
| San Simón | 0.082 | 0.241 | 0.184* | 0.096 |
| Constant | −0.212 | 0.530 | ||
| Person years | 17,535 | |||
*
p < 0.10; p < 0.05; p < 0.01.