Table 1. Trends in United States Bird Conservation Regions (BCR) between 1999 and 2009: comparison between results obtained with the Link & Sauer (2002) hierarchical model for population change and our conditional autoregressive (CAR) model.
| BCR | Carolina Wren | Cerulean Warbler | Red Bellied Woodpecker | |||||||||
| CAR | Link & Sauer | CAR | Link & Sauer | CAR | Link & Sauer | |||||||
| Appalachian Mountains | 1.9 | [0.5; 3.2] | 2.2 | [1.0; 3.45] | −2.8 | [−7.9; 2.4] | −1.0 | [−3.1; 1.7] | 3.4 | [2.1; 4.7] | 3.8 | [2.9; 4.6] |
| Atlantic Northern Forest | 8.6 | [0.2; 17.7] | 11.6 | [−10.7; 33.4] | – | – | 11 | [5.3; 17] | 19.7 | [7.4; 30.5] | ||
| Boreal Hardwood Transition | – | – | 6.6 | [−12.3; 29.1] | −17.5 | [−62.0; 10.7] | 6.7 | [1.5; 12.1] | 9.7 | [3.6; 15.5] | ||
| Central Hardwoods | 2.1 | [0.7; 3.5] | 2.6 | [1.4; 3.9] | 3.8 | [−5.3; 13.3] | −2.1 | [−4.7; 0.9] | 0.1 | [−1.1; 1.4] | −0.04 | [−1.0; 0.9] |
| Central Mixed Grass Prairie | 3.1 | [−1.9; 8.2] | 3.1 | [−2.0; 8.1] | – | – | 1.8 | [−1.5; 5] | 2.8 | [1.1; 4.7] | ||
| Eastern Tallgrass Prairie | 4.7 | [2.3; 7.1] | 5.5 | [3.2; 7.8] | 0.1 | [−10; 11.5] | −3.8 | [−15.4; 13.5] | 2.9 | [1.4; 4.3] | 2.0 | [0.9; 3.1] |
| Edwards Plateau | 1.3 | [−4.4; 6.3] | 0.5 | [−3.5; 4.0] | – | – | −2.7 | [−9; 3.7] | 0.3 | [−12.6; 14.6] | ||
| Gulf Coastal Prairie | 1.1 | [−2.7; 5.1] | 5.8 | [3.0; 9.4] | – | – | −1 | [−4.4; 2.7] | 2.3 | [0.1; 4.5] | ||
| Lower Great Lakes/St. Lawrence Plain | 2.4 | [−2.1; 7.1] | 3.1 | [−2.1; 8.3] | −8.3 | [−18; 3.5] | −1.6 | [−6.4; 3.0] | 6.4 | [3.5; 9.4] | 6.7 | [5.0; 8.5] |
| Mississippi Alluvial Valley | 1.3 | [−0.4; 2.9] | 1.3 | [−0.2; 2.7] | – | – | −3.1 | [−4.8; −1.4] | 1.2 | [−0.5; 2.7] | ||
| New England/Mid-Atlantic Coast | 5.3 | [3.8; 6.8] | 4.7 | [3.2; 6.4] | −7.9 | [−27.2; 15.6] | 3.6 | [−24.4; 21.1] | 5 | [3; 7.1] | 4.1 | [2.7; 5.6] |
| Oaks And Prairies | −0.3 | [−2.5; 1.9] | −0.7 | [−2.7; 1.2] | – | – | 4.8 | [2.4; 7.4] | 2.6 | [0.8; 4.6] | ||
| Peninsular Florida | 0.2 | [−1.5; 1.9] | −0.2 | [−1.2; 0.7] | – | – | −0.9 | [−2.5; 0.7] | −0.7 | [−2.0; 0.6] | ||
| Piedmont | 1.3 | [0; 2.6] | 0.8 | [−0.3; 2.0] | −3.6 | [−15.3; 9.5] | −0.3 | [−7.7; 7.7] | 1.6 | [0.2; 3.1] | 1.4 | [0.4; 2.4] |
| Prairie Hardwood Transition | 5.3 | [−2.1; 13.2] | 5.1 | [−6.2; 13.9] | 6.7 | [−6.2; 21.7] | −1.1 | [−5.4; 7.3] | 5.4 | [3.6; 7.3] | 4.9 | [3.8; 6.2] |
| Prairie Potholes | – | – | – | – | 3.8 | [−2.6; 10.5] | 5.1 | [1.4; 9.1] | ||||
| Southeastern Coastal Plain | 0.6 | [−0.4; 1.6] | 0.5 | [−0.2; 1.1] | 6.7 | [−14.8; 32.1] | −3.0 | [−53.0; 105.1] | 1.6 | [0.6; 2.5] | 1.0 | [0.5; 1.5] |
| Tamaulipan Brushlands | −6.9 | [−18.1; 4.4] | 6.9 | [1.3; 14.0] | – | – | – | – | ||||
| West Gulf Coastal Plain/Ouachitas | 0.5 | [−0.8; 1.8] | 0.4 | [−0.9; 1.6] | 7.8 | [−26.3; 56.2] | −15.3 | [−27.6; −0.4] | 1 | [−0.7; 2.7] | 0.7 | [−0.3; 1.6] |
Results indicating a greater precision thanks to the spatial approach are indicated in bold.