Table 3. Systematic variations in model input parameters for calibration of CEPAC-Pediatric model.

Parameter	Values
Initial CD4% (mean % for cohort, SD = 9%)
All Ages	42, 45, 47, 50
Monthly CD4% decline at each age (%) a
0-3 months	3.0, 4.0, 6.4 or 8.0
4-60 months	0.3, 0.5 or 1.4
Monthly risks of clinical events (%)
All ages	Held equal to IeDEA clinical event risks
HIV-deleted mortality risk (%)
All ages	Held equal to weighted average of HIV-deleted mortality rates from countries represented in UNAIDS cohort
Acute mortality risk (%) b
All Ages	0.5-5.0 X IeDEA risks (increments of 0.5)
Chronic HIV mortality risk c
0-6 months	1.0-20.0 X IeDEA risks (increments of 1.0)
7-12 months	1.0-20.0 X IeDEA risks (increments of 1.0)
13-24 months	0.5-5.0 X IeDEA risks (increments of 0.5)
25-36 months	0.5-5.0 X IeDEA risks (increments of 0.5)
37-48 months	0.2-2.0 X IeDEA risks (increments of 0.2)
49-60 months	0.2-2.0 X IeDEA risks (increments of 0.2)

IeDEA: International Epidemiologic Database to Evaluate AIDS, East African region. m: month.

a. Values for monthly CD4% decline reflect more rapid decline in the first three months of life than after age three months, based on published literature [43–45], and the results of internal validation analyses.

b. Acute mortality risk: risk of death within 30 days of a clinical event (WHO Stage 3, WHO Stage 4, or tuberculosis; see Methods).

c. Chronic HIV mortality: monthly risk of death for patients with no history of a clinical event, or for patients >30 days following a clinical event (see Methods). In all evaluated parameter sets, multipliers for chronic HIV mortality were limited to ranges in which multipliers applied at younger ages were ≥ multipliers at older ages. Risks were therefore permitted to remain constant or decrease (but not increase) with age. This leads to a total of 294,660 parameter combinations of chronic HIV mortality multipliers, and 141.4 million total parameter sets examined (see Methods).