Table 2.

Sampled parameters for individual based model. All individual birds have infection characteristics sampled from these distributions. The single number refers to the median of the fitted posterior distribution estimated previously, and the range in brackets corresponds to the respective 95% credible interval of the posterior distribution. The two distributions provided for each parameter are from the two posterior distributions estimated from two replicate experiments using the same MDV virulence and vaccination status. The individual infection characteristics for each bird are sampled from either replicate distribution with equal probability. RND is a uniform random variable on the interval [0,1].

Parameter	Symbol	Value/s
Primary viral shedding rate (logVCN/mg dust)	$a_1(v,j)$
$v=16$.5, no vaccine		4.87 (3.79–5.25), 3.37 (2.79–4.05)
$v=36$, no vaccine		3.86 (3.30–4.56), 3.28 (2.71–3.95)
$v=46$, no vaccine		3.20 (2.64–3.90), 2.89 (2.34–3.59)
$v=16.5$, HVT		3.79 (3.34–4.20), 2.44 (1.93–3.02)
$v=36$, HVT		4.48 (4.19–4.92), 4.56 (4.13–4.91)
$v=46$, HVT		2.70 (2.16–3.42), 4.15 (3.58–4.82)
Secondary viral shedding rate (VCN/mg dust)	$a_2(v,j)$
$v=16.5$, no vaccine		6.99 (6.72–7.21), 6.89 (6.72–7.07)
$v=36$, no vaccine		7.34 (7.17–7.51), 7.58 (7.41–7.76)
$v=46$, no vaccine		7.69 (7.51–7.85), 7.52 (7.32–7.72)
$v=16.5$, HVT		6.83 (6.61–7.04), 6.35 (6.18–6.52)
$v=36$, HVT		7.49 (7.28–7.70), 7.53 (7.31–7.75)
$v=46$, HVT		7.50 (7.32–7.67), 7.29 (7.11–7.46)
Primary delay until viral shedding (days)	$T_{s1}(v,j)$
$v=16.5$, no vaccine		6 (2–6), 4 (0–6)
$v=36$, no vaccine		4 (0–6), 4 (0–6)
$v=46$, no vaccine		3 (0–6), 3 (0–6)
$v=16.5$, HVT		5 (0–6), 2 (0–6)
$v=36$, HVT		6 (4–6), 6 (2–6)
$v=46$, HVT		3 (0–6), 3 (0–6)
Secondary delay until viral shedding (days)	$T_{s2}(v,j)$
$v=16.5$, no vaccine		10 (7–14), 9 (6–13)
$v=36$, no vaccine		9 (6–13), 9 (6–13)
$v=46$, no vaccine		9 (6–13), 9 (5–13)
$v=16.5$, HVT		12 (8–17), 10 (7–13)
$v=36$, HVT		11 (8–14), 12 (8–16)
$v=46$, HVT		10 (6–13), 9 (6–13)
Weibull scale intercept	β0	4.54 (4.23–4.87)
Weibull scale coefficient
$v_T$	β1	−0.53 (−1.01–0.06)
HVT	β2	0.44 (0.24–0.66)
Weibull scale parameter
no vaccine	$\lambda (v,\mathrm{sham})$	${\beta }_0+{\beta }_1{v}_T$
HVT	$\lambda (v,\mathrm{HVT})$	${\beta }_0+{\beta }_1{v}_T+{\beta }_2$
Time until death due to MDV	$T(v,j)$	$\lambda (v,j)exp\left[\frac{1}{r}ln(-ln(1-\mathrm{RND}))\right]$