Table 8. Criteria used to evaluate individual model predictions that were independent of the model process.

Evaluation data required	Evaluation reasoning	Evaluation outcome
Anecdotal data including the locations where bears were sighted	If the distribution or number of bears people see is increasing this suggests an increasing population	Sightings of sows with cubs suggest the unit is occupied; distributional changes suggest corresponding changes in bear numbers; increased sightings suggest an increasing population
Locations where bears were killed or conflicted with people	The distribution of conflict or kill locations over time may suggest expanding, static or contracting bear distribution	Conflicts with sows and cubs suggest the unit is occupied; distributional changes suggest corresponding changes in bear numbers; increased conflicts suggest the population is increasing
Absolute ages of dead bears (from all human caused mortality)	Females older than 7 years are likely residents because they are unlikely to emigrate from their home range	Presence of resident bears suggests the unit is occupied; older median age at mortality of males suggests a lower kill rate
Age by sex of bears in the hunter kill	Trend in median age suggests a population trend	Decreasing age of males or increasing age of females may signal a declining population
Hunter success rates	Trend in success suggests a population trend	Higher success rates may indicate an increasing population
Proportion of females in the hunter kill	Trend in female proportion suggest a population trend	Increasing proportion of females suggests a declining male population

These criteria can be used to confirm residency, to identify suspect predictions, evaluate a predicted level of harvest, or help decide what level of harvest to allow.