Table 3.

Average Belief of Likelihood of Current Infection After VCT

Panel A: HIV Positives	Follow-up Sample Only				Follow-up Sample Only				Full Sample
	2–6 Months after VCT, 2005 Follow-up Survey				2 Years after VCT, 2006 Follow-up Survey				2 Years after VCT, 2006 Follow-up Survey
	IV No Likelihood		IV Ordered Probit No Likelihood (1–3)		IV No Likelihood		IV Ordered Probit No Likelihood (1–4)		IV No Likelihood		IV Ordered Probit No Likelihood (1–4)
	DKs = Some Likelihood	DKs = Missing	DKs = Some Likelihood	DKs = Missing	DKs = Some Likelihood	DKs = Missing	DKs = Some Likelihood	DKs = Missing	DKs = Some Likelihood	DKs = Missing	DKs = Some Likelihood	DKs = Missing
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)	(12)
Got Results	−0.237	−0.412	−0.307	−0.390	0.357	N/A	0.099	N/A	0.273	N/A	0.088	N/A
	[0.289]	[0.311]	[0.280]	[0.299]	[0.262]	N/A	[319]	N/A	[0.261]	N/A	[0.310]	N/A
Observations	45	35	45	35	45	N/A	45	N/A	79	N/A	79	N/A
R-squared	0.189	0.152	--	--	0.220	N/A	--	N/A	0.184	N/A	--	N/A
Mean of Dependent Variable	0.49	0.63	1.69	1.60	0.42	N/A	1.98	N/A	0.38	N/A	2.09	N/A

Panel B: HIV Negatives	Follow-up Sample Only				Follow-up Sample Only				Full Sample
	2–6 Months after VCT, 2005 Follow-up Survey				2 Years after VCT, 2006 Follow-up Survey				2 Years after VCT, 2006 Follow-up Survey
	IV No Likelihood		IV Ordered Probit No Likelihood (1–3)		IV No Likelihood		IV Ordered Probit No Likelihood (1–4)		IV No Likelihood		IV Ordered Probit No Likelihood (1–4)
	DKs = Some Likelihood	DKs = Missing	DKs = Some Likelihood	DKs = Missing	DKs = Some Likelihood	DKs = Missing	DKs = Some Likelihood	DKs = Missing	DKs = Some Likelihood	DKs = Missing	DKs = Some Likelihood	DKs = Missing
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)	(12)
Got Results	0.296***	0.079	0.261***	0.044	0.016	0.011	0.003	−0.002	−0.091**	−0.097**	−0.102**	−0.105**
	[0.054]	[0.066]	[0.072]	[0.063]	[0.054]	[0.053]	[0.057]	[0.055]	[0.045]	[0.044]	[0.043]	[0.041]
Observations	1,053	889	1053	889	1,053	1,046	1053	1046	1734	1,723	1734	1,723
R-squared	0.184	0.044	--	--	0.036	0.035	--	--	0.016	0.014	--	--
Mean of Dependent Variable	0.77	0.91	1.24	1.10	0.72	0.73	1.36	1.36	0.73	0.73	1.37	1.37

Notes: Each column represents an IV regression where “Got Results” is instrumented with having any incentive, the amount of the incentive, and distance from the HIV results center. Standard errors are clustered by village. Also includes age and age squared, a simulated average distance to the VCT tent, a gender dummy, log expenditures at baseline, years of education, a dummy for being married, and district fixed effects. Columsn 3,4, 7, 8, 11, and 12 present IV ordered probits where “don't know” responses are coded as either some likelihood or are missing values, as indicated above. Coefficients are marginal effects reported as the probility of believing there is no likelihood of infection. In these columns, “Got Results” is instrumented with the same set of instruments as indicated above. Robust standard errors in brackets.

^*significant at 10%

^**significant at 5%

^***significant at 1%