Table 4.
Probabilities and Estimated Viable Transfers to the Planets in the Solar System
| Probability (%) | 3.5 Gyr total | Mass (kg) transferred | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| from Earth |
Orbit |
40±0.3 |
80,000,000±600,000 |
2.7×1013 |
| |
Sun |
1.5±0.06 |
3,000,000±100,000 |
1.0×1012 |
| |
Mercury |
0.37±0.03 |
730,000±60,000 |
2.5×1011 |
| |
Venus |
13±0.2 |
26,000,000±300,000 |
8.9×1012 |
| |
Earth |
40±0.3 |
79,000,000±600,000 |
2.7×1013 |
| |
Mars |
0.18±0.02 |
360,000±40,000 |
1.2×1011 |
| |
Jupiter |
0.041±0.01 |
83,000±20,000 |
2.8×1010 |
| |
Saturn |
0.0069±0.004 |
14,000±8,000 |
4.7×109 |
| |
Ejected |
5±0.1 |
10,000,000±200,000 |
3.4×1012 |
| from Mars |
Orbit |
75±0.4 |
600,000,000±3,000,000 |
2.0×1014 |
| |
Sun |
1.3±0.06 |
10,000,000±300,000 |
3.4×1012 |
| |
Mercury |
0.03±0.009 |
240,000±50,000 |
8.1×1010 |
| |
Venus |
1.5±0.06 |
12,000,000±400,000 |
4.1×1012 |
| |
Earth |
2.6±0.08 |
21,000,000±500,000 |
7.0×1012 |
| |
Mars |
16±0.2 |
130,000,000±1,000,000 |
4.3×1013 |
| |
Jupiter |
0.04±0.01 |
320,000±60,000 |
1.1×1011 |
| |
Saturn |
<0.0025 |
<20,000 |
<6.8×109 |
| Ejected | 3.8±0.1 | 31,000,000±600,000 | 1.0×1013 |
The 3.5 Gyr total is the number of transferred objects we expect. Mass transferred assumes each object is ∼340,000 kg (i.e., a 3 m sphere with density of 3 g/cm3). No Mars-to-Saturn transfers were seen in the simulations, so we show the upper limits.