Table 1. Definition and values of key model parameters.

Definition		Value	Range	Reference
Birth/non-TB death rate per year		0.017	0.015–0.018
TB mortality per year		0.15	0.10–0.22	[38]
Transmission events per infectious person-year) after year 0		6.77		[39]
Attenuation of infectiousness of INHr stains		0. 986	0.85–1.0	[30], [40], [41]
Attenuation of infectiousness of MDR strains		0.774	0.6–0.923*	[30], [42], [43]
Partial immunity afforded by previous infection		0.45	0.4–0.55	[44]–[46]
Proportion of TB infections progressing rapidly to active TB		0.14	0.05–0.14	[47]
Endogenous reactivation rate per year		0.0005	0.08–1.4 x10−3	[48]
Rate of self-cure in active TB per year		0.1	0.08–0.25	[19], [49]
Percent of patients without access to diagnostics		15	5–25	[50]
Sensitivity of current diagnostic standard		0.80	0.6–0.9	[38]
Sensitivity of molecular methods		0.95	0.75–0.98	[51], [52]
Proportion of patients initiating treatment after diagnosis		0.85	0.81–0.89	[53], [54]
Treatment outcomes of patients with DS-TB+				[38], [55]–[57]
	Cured	0.88	0.75–0.95
	Developing INHr-TB	0.004	0.003–0.01
	Developing MDR-TB	0.001	0.0005–0.005
Treatment outcomes of patients with INHr -TB on standard therapy+				[7], [12], [38], [56]–[59]
	Cured	0.80	0.65–0.90
	Developing MDR-TB	0.01	0.001–0.02
Treatment outcomes of patients with INHr -TB on DST-guided therapy+				[10], [30], [38], [46]–[49]
	Cured	0.88	0.75–0.95
	Developing MDR-TB	0.001	0.001–0.005

upper margin defined by value necessary to attain doubling of proportion MDR over the duration of model period

Further information on treatment outcomes is available in Table S2 (in File S1) in the supplement; outcomes are expressed as probabilities per treatment episode.

Abbreviations: TB =  tuberculosis, INHr =  Isoniazid monoresistant, MDR =  multi-drug resistant (i.e., resistant to isoniazid and rifampin, DST =  drug-susceptibility testing, DS-TB =  drug-susceptible TB