Table 4.

Sensitivity Analyses of Estimated Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV)–Transmission Rates at the Last Episode of Intercourse in the Past Month, by Study Arm, and Estimated Protective Effect of the Early Antiretroviral Therapy Strategy

Population	Participants by Arm, No.	Specific Assumption	Expected HIV Transmissions by Arm, No./10 000 Persons (95% CI)a		Protective Effect, % (95% CI)
			Standard	Early
Total sample	Standard, 467; early, 490	Main analysis	1.87 (1.39–2.39)	0.20 (.09–.33)	90 (81–95)
Baseline CD4+ T-cell count >350 cells/mm3	Standard, 396; early, 402	Same as in the main analysis	2.03 (1.47–2.66)	0.20 (.08–.36)	90 (81–96)
Cohabiting serodiscordant couples	Standard, 55; early, 54	Same as in the main analysis	3.36 (2.11–4.78)	0.37 (.14–.64)	89 (77–96)
Total sample	Standard, 467; early, 490	viral load = 300 copies/mL for patients with undetectable viral load	1.88 (1.40–2.40)	0.30 (.19–.43)	84 (75–90)
Total sample	Standard, 467; early, 490	Same as in the main analysis	1.72 (1.36–2.11)b	0.25 (.14–.4)b	85 (75–92)
Total sample	Standard, 467; early, 490	40% of partners with unknown HIV status considered as HIV-positive	1.34 (1.01–1.70)	0.13 (.07–.22)	90 (82–95)
Total sample	Standard, 467; early, 490	All participants considered as having had a last unprotected intercourse with a HIV-negative partner	18.4 (16.6–20.3)	2.1 (1.4–2.9)	89 (84–92)

Data are from 957 patients who participated in a sociobehavioral study nested in the Temprano trial and were recorded at the 12-month visit. Patients in the early arm initiated ART immediately on inclusion in the trial, whereas patients in the standard arm delayed ART initiation until ongoing WHO starting criteria were met.

^a Data are expected no. of transmissions at the last episode of sexual intercourse in the past month. All data are from Hughes et al [19], unless otherwise indicated.

^b Data for viral load–specific HIV transmission probabilities are from Gray et al [22].