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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2015 Apr 1.
Published in final edited form as: Lifetime Data Anal. 2013 May 31;20(2):234–251. doi: 10.1007/s10985-013-9260-x

Table 1.

Simulation results of ROC-AUC

Marginalized Conditional Known frailty
m m1 CR PNCR NCR CR PNCR NCR CR PNCR NCR
event type r = 1 is singled out
Prediction at 10-year interval
Whole 23204 3312 0.674 0.666 0.667 0.673 0.664 0.665 0.772 0.765 0.766
Non-carriers 21164 3059 0.675 0.672 0.671 0.674 0.670 0.669 0.771 0.768 0.767
Carriers 2040 253 0.664 0.664 0.663 0.658 0.663 0.662 0.778 0.753 0.752
Prediction at 15-year interval
Whole 23204 4325 0.678 0.667 0.669 0.677 0.665 0.668 0.775 0.764 0.765
Non-carriers 21164 4024 0.677 0.675 0.674 0.676 0.674 0.673 0.774 0.768 0.768
Carriers 2040 301 0.670 0.666 0.666 0.666 0.667 0.666 0.781 0.740 0.739

event type r = 2 is singled out
Prediction at 10-year interval
Whole 23204 4147 0.745 0.745 0.745 0.744 0.745 0.745 0.825 0.823 0.822
Non-carriers 21164 3172 0.706 0.706 0.706 0.705 0.706 0.705 0.804 0.802 0.801
Carriers 2040 975 0.728 0.729 0.728 0.744 0.728 0.728 0.808 0.800 0.800
Prediction at 15-year interval
Whole 23204 5244 0.734 0.734 0.734 0.733 0.734 0.735 0.816 0.812 0.812
Non-carriers 21164 4128 0.697 0.698 0.698 0.697 0.698 0.698 0.796 0.791 0.791
Carriers 2040 1116 0.726 0.724 0.725 0.721 0.723 0.723 0.814 0.800 0.800

m - total number of counselees; m1 - number of events;

CR - the competing risks based method; PNCR - ignoring competing risks only at prediction; NCR - ignoring competing risks at estimation and prediction.