Table 1.
Marginalized | Conditional | Known frailty | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
m | m1 | CR | PNCR | NCR | CR | PNCR | NCR | CR | PNCR | NCR | |
event type r = 1 is singled out | |||||||||||
Prediction at 10-year interval | |||||||||||
Whole | 23204 | 3312 | 0.674 | 0.666 | 0.667 | 0.673 | 0.664 | 0.665 | 0.772 | 0.765 | 0.766 |
Non-carriers | 21164 | 3059 | 0.675 | 0.672 | 0.671 | 0.674 | 0.670 | 0.669 | 0.771 | 0.768 | 0.767 |
Carriers | 2040 | 253 | 0.664 | 0.664 | 0.663 | 0.658 | 0.663 | 0.662 | 0.778 | 0.753 | 0.752 |
Prediction at 15-year interval | |||||||||||
Whole | 23204 | 4325 | 0.678 | 0.667 | 0.669 | 0.677 | 0.665 | 0.668 | 0.775 | 0.764 | 0.765 |
Non-carriers | 21164 | 4024 | 0.677 | 0.675 | 0.674 | 0.676 | 0.674 | 0.673 | 0.774 | 0.768 | 0.768 |
Carriers | 2040 | 301 | 0.670 | 0.666 | 0.666 | 0.666 | 0.667 | 0.666 | 0.781 | 0.740 | 0.739 |
event type r = 2 is singled out | |||||||||||
Prediction at 10-year interval | |||||||||||
Whole | 23204 | 4147 | 0.745 | 0.745 | 0.745 | 0.744 | 0.745 | 0.745 | 0.825 | 0.823 | 0.822 |
Non-carriers | 21164 | 3172 | 0.706 | 0.706 | 0.706 | 0.705 | 0.706 | 0.705 | 0.804 | 0.802 | 0.801 |
Carriers | 2040 | 975 | 0.728 | 0.729 | 0.728 | 0.744 | 0.728 | 0.728 | 0.808 | 0.800 | 0.800 |
Prediction at 15-year interval | |||||||||||
Whole | 23204 | 5244 | 0.734 | 0.734 | 0.734 | 0.733 | 0.734 | 0.735 | 0.816 | 0.812 | 0.812 |
Non-carriers | 21164 | 4128 | 0.697 | 0.698 | 0.698 | 0.697 | 0.698 | 0.698 | 0.796 | 0.791 | 0.791 |
Carriers | 2040 | 1116 | 0.726 | 0.724 | 0.725 | 0.721 | 0.723 | 0.723 | 0.814 | 0.800 | 0.800 |
m - total number of counselees; m1 - number of events;
CR - the competing risks based method; PNCR - ignoring competing risks only at prediction; NCR - ignoring competing risks at estimation and prediction.