Table 2.

Simulation results of calibration: the ratio of the observed and expected number of events

			Marginalized			Conditional			Known frailty
	m	m1	CR	PNCR	NCR	CR	PNCR	NCR	CR	PNCR	NCR
event type r = 1 is singled out
Prediction at 10-year interval
Whole	23204	3312	0.988	0.798	0.876	0.990	0.852	0.949	0.968	0.834	0.966
Non-carriers	21164	3059	1.023	0.838	0.909	1.021	0.898	0.986	1.053	0.865	0.966
Carriers	2040	253	0.989	0.506	0.611	0.989	0.527	0.658	0.989	0.584	0.781
Prediction at 15-year interval
Whole	23204	4325	0.992	0.769	0.848	1.007	0.799	0.894	0.992	0.801	0.929
Non-carriers	21164	4024	0.994	0.810	0.884	1.004	0.845	0.934	0.993	0.834	0.953
Carriers	2040	301	0.968	0.457	0.549	1.056	0.461	0.573	0.986	0.521	0.689
event type r = 2 is singled out
Prediction at 10-year interval
Whole	23204	4147	1.002	0.873	0.932	1.006	0.882	0.945	0.988	0.884	0.973
Non-carriers	21164	3172	0.977	0.868	0.932	1.005	0.901	0.976	0.897	0.883	0.980
Carriers	2040	975	0.996	0.893	0.933	1.001	0.823	0.857	0.980	0.886	0.949
Prediction at 15-year interval
Whole	23204	5244	1.005	0.846	0.910	0.967	0.841	0.910	0.999	0.867	0.949
Non-carriers	21164	4128	1.012	0.839	0.911	0.992	0.853	0.933	1.007	0.792	0.956
Carriers	2040	1116	0.981	0.856	0.907	0.886	0.854	0.826	0.973	0.861	0.922

m - total number of counselees; m₁ - number of events;

CR - the competing risks based method; PNCR - ignoring competing risks only at prediction; NCR - ignoring competing risks at estimation and prediction.