Table 3.

Simulation results of MSEP (× 100)

Marginalized			Conditional
CR	PNCR	NCR	CR	PNCR	NCR
event type r = 1 is singled out
Prediction at 10-year interval
1.0717	1.3819	1.2321	1.0913	1.4032	1.2548
Prediction at 15-year interval
1.5535	2.1843	1.8860	1.5854	2.2828	1.9495
event type r = 2 is singled out
Prediction at 10-year interval
1.3594	1.4922	1.4291	1.4999	1.6388	1.5394
Prediction at 15-year interval
1.8146	2.1035	1.9557	1.9557	2.3866	2.1566

CR - the competing risks based method;

PNCR - ignoring competing risks only at prediction;

NCR - ignoring competing risks at estimation and prediction.