| Demographic |
|
|
| Population during 1980 |
15,926 million |
(16) |
| Birth cohort* |
[217,580–367,750] |
(16,17) |
| Mortality rate in <1 y* |
20–54 per 1,000 births |
(16,17) |
| Mortality rate in 1–4 y* |
3.9–6.3 per 1,000 births |
(16,17) |
| Net yearly migration rate* |
−18.6–0.1 per 1,000 |
(16,17) |
Deaths per year*
|
[128,570–180,000]
|
(16,17)
|
| Natural history |
|
|
| Duration of maternal protection |
70 d |
(18) |
| Duration of latency period |
0.5 d |
(19) |
| Infectious period (days) |
8 (first); 6 (second); 4 (later) |
(20–22) |
| Relative susceptibility |
1 (first); 0.62 (second); 0.40 (later) |
(23) |
| Relative infectiousness |
1 (first); 0.5 (second); [0.1–0.2] (later) |
Author assumption |
| Proportion of infections with RVGE |
0.47(first); 0.25 (second); 0.24 (later) |
(23) |
| Severe RVGE |
0.13 (first); 0.04 (second); 0 (later) |
(23) |
Duration of complete immunity
|
[6–12 mo]
|
(24)
|
| Vaccination |
|
|
| Sero-conversion rate |
0.96 |
(25) |
| Relative infectiousness†
Relative susceptibility† |
0.5
0.62 |
Assumption
Author assumption |
| Prop. of infections with RVGE |
0.30 [0.25–0.35] |
(25–27) |
| Severe RVGE |
0.1175 [0.0885–0.139] |
(25–27) |
| Coverage |
0.9 [0.8–1.0] |
Author assumption |
Duration of complete immunity
|
12–24 mo]
|
Author assumption
|
| Fitted‡ |
|
|
| Infectivity parameter, β0 |
1.889–2.605 |
Author calculation |
| Seasonal forcing, β1 |
0.025–0.046 |
Author calculation |
| Phase angle, θ |
0.011–0.251 |
Author calculation |
Mixing (relative susceptibility)§
0–7m, 8–23 m, 24–35 m
|
1.077–2.765
|
Author calculation
|
| *Demographic parameters vary over the time period 1980-2031; only minimum and maximum values are listed in the table. All simulations are performed using the same set of demographic parameters.
†Vaccine efficacy calculated for children with no previous natural infection.
‡Details on the fitted parameters of the five candidate models; see corresponding model fits in Technical Appendix Table; seasonal forcing: β0(1 + β1)sin(2πt / 365 + 0).
§Relative susceptibility in children <3 years (Technical Appendix, section 1). |
