Table 2.

Spatial Variation in Unsmoothed and Smoothed Relative Risks of Psychotic Syndromes After Indirect Standardization

Outcome		Observed Subjects		Expected Subjects		Unsmoothed SIRa		Smoothed RRb
								Model 1 (Unstructured)		Model 2 (Structured)		Model 3 (Convolution)		Model 4 (Mixed)
Nonaffective psychoses (F20-29)
Minimum		0		2.90		0.00		0.46		0.54		0.48		0.44
5th percentile		1		3.71		0.18		0.49		0.62		0.48		0.54
Median		5.5		5.49		0.88		0.97		0.93		0.95		1.02
95th percentile		11		7.52		2.75		1.83		1.89		1.92		2.37
Maximum		14		8.26		3.24		2.02		2.04		2.05		2.41
Mean		5.59		5.59		1.03		1.03		1.02		1.03		1.11
DIC		—		—		—		279.54		273.40		273.88		262.62
MAPE		—		—		—		2.60		2.60		2.58		2.56
MSPE		—		—		—		11.39		11.30		11.18		11.03
Affective psychoses (F30-33)
Minimum		0		1.14		0.00		0.96		0.93		0.91		0.95
5th percentile		0		1.41		0.00		0.97		0.94		0.91		0.95
Median		2		2.01		1.03		1.00		0.98		0.98		1.01
95th percentile		4		2.65		1.94		1.03		1.10		1.11		1.10
Maximum		5		2.78		2.42		1.05		1.11		1.16		1.16
Mean		2.04		2.04		0.98		1.00		0.99		0.99		1.02
DIC		—		—		—		182.83		182.24		183.24		182.79
MAPE		—		—		—		1.44		1.44		1.43		1.44
MSPE		—		—		—		3.45		3.42		3.41		3.43

Notes: DIC, Deviance Information Criterion; MAPE, Mean Absolute Prediction Error; MSPE, Mean Squared Prediction Error.

^aClassical (unsmoothed) Standardized Incidence Ratio–standardized for age, sex, ethnicity, and social class.

^bBayesian spatial modeling after standardization for age, sex, ethnicity, and social class. Type of random effects at neighborhood-level in parentheses.