Table 3.

Association between annual HIV incidence and HSV-2 incidence and prevalence

	Previous year Coefficient – crude [95% CI]†	Previous year Coefficient – adjusted [95% CI]†	Three years previously Coefficient – crude [95% CI] †	Three years previously Coefficient – adjusted [95% CI] †
Men
HSV-2 incidence in men	−0.1 [−0.1, 0.04]	−0.1 [−0.2, 0.03 ]	0.1 [−0.04, 0.2]	0.1 [−0.004, 0.3]
HSV-2 incidence in women	−0.1 [−0.1, 0.02]	−0.04 [−0.1, 0.05]	0.1 [0.01, 0.1], P = 0.05	0.1 [−0.01, 0.2]
HSV-2 incidence overall	−0.1 [−0.1, 0.02]	−0.1 [−0.2, 0.04]	0.1 [−0.02, 0.2]	0.1 [0.03, 0.2], P = 0.04
HSV-2 prevalence in men	0.5 [0.1, 0.9]	0.4 [−0.2, 0.9]	0.4 [−0.1, 0.8]	0.1 [−0.5, 0.7]
HSV-2 prevalence in women	0.1 [−0.2, 0.5]	0.1 [−0.3, 0.6]	0.3 [−0.1, 0.6]	0.3 [−0.2, 0.8]
HSV-2 prevalence overall	−0.1 [−0.3, 0.1]	−0.02 [−0.4, 0.4]	0.0 [−0.2, 0.2]	0.1 [−0.4, 0.6]
Women
HSV-2 incidence in men	0.1 [0.01, 0.1], P = 0.06	0.1 [0.02, 0.2], P = 0.04	0.1 [0, 0.2]	−0.1 [−0.2, 0.1]
HSV-2 incidence in women	0.1 [0.02, 0.1], P = 0.01	0.1 [−0.01, 0.1]	0. 0 [−0.1, 0.1]	−0.04 [−0.1, 0.03]
HSV-2 incidence overall	0.1 [0.02, 0.1], P = 0.02	0.1 [−0.002, 0.2]	0. 0 [−0.1, 0.1]	−0.02 [−0.1, 0.1]
HSV-2 prevalence in men	−0.1 [−0.5, 0.3]	−0.4 [−0.9, 0.1]	0.2 [−0.2, 0.6]	0.1 [−0.4, 0.5]
HSV-2 prevalence in women	−0.2 [−0.5, 0.1]	−0.2 [−0.6, 0.1]	0.2 [−0.1, 0.6]	0.2 [−0.2, 0.6]
HSV-2 prevalence overall	0.001 [−0.2, 0.2]	0.1 [−0.3, 0.4]	−0.2 [−0.3, −0.02], P = 0.04	−0.1 [−0.4, 0.3]

^†P-value >0.05 if not indicated.

Adjusted by median age, per cent of population that were internal migrants, per cent that were not Muslim, per cent that had ever been married and per cent that were HSV-2 infected.

Each coefficient represents the direction and magnitude of effect of HSV-2 prevalence/incidence on HIV incidence. For example, an increase of 1/1000 pyr in HSV-2 incidence in men resulted in a 0.1/1000 pyr increase in the HIV incidence in women.