Table 4.

Projected numbers of baseline cancers and radiation-related (excess) cancers by population group, cancer type, and time-period (all values rounded to two significant digits).

Population group and cancer type	Projected lifetime cancers from 1948				Projected cancers 1948–2008				Projected cancers from 2009
	Baseline	Excess			Baseline	Excess			Baseline	Excess
		Mean	5%	95%		Mean	5%	95%		Mean	5%	95%
Rongelap Island community (cohort exposed on Rongelap Island in 1954)
Leukemia	0.45	1.6	0.30	4.3	0.27	1.3	0.2	3.7	0.17	0.3	0.072	0.59
Thyroid	0.6	12	4.2	21	0.48	9.5	2.8	18	0.12	2.3	1.2	3.6
Stomach	1.8	1.7	0.23	4.9	1	0.79	0.1	2.5	0.8	0.87	0.12	2.7
Colon	3	5.4	1.7	11	1.7	2.5	0.77	5.1	1.4	2.9	0.9	5.9
Other solid	28	21	7	33	18	16	5.2	27	10	4.9	2.2	7.9
Total	34	41	13	74	21	30	9	57	13	11	4.5	21
Utrik community
Leukemia	1.4	0.34	0.062	1.2	0.77	0.28	0.044	1	0.63	0.062	0.016	0.13
Thyroid	1.8	4.4	0.85	11	1.3	3	0.56	8.2	0.5	1.4	0.27	3.3
Stomach	5.9	0.3	0.038	0.99	2.8	0.14	0.018	0.39	3	0.16	0.02	0.61
Colon	9.6	1	0.32	2.3	4.6	0.42	0.13	0.93	5.1	0.58	0.16	1.3
Other solid	91	6.5	1.4	14	49	3.6	0.89	8.7	42	2.9	0.46	6.8
Total	110	12	2.6	30	58	7.4	1.6	19	51	5.1	0.93	12
Kwajalein and other mid-latitude atolls*
Leukemia	35	3.2	0.59	8.8	14	2.5	0.41	7.8	21	0.62	0.15	1.2
Thyroid	46	15	3	38	27	10	2	26	19	5	1	12
Stomach	140	2.7	0.36	8.5	44	1.3	0.16	4.1	96	1.5	0.2	4.3
Colon	230	5.3	1.7	12	69	2.3	0.77	4.8	160	3	0.9	6.3
Other solid	2,200	31	7.4	66	790	18	4.7	38	1,400	13	2.8	28
Total	2,600	58	13	130	940	35	8.1	80	1,700	23	5.1	52
Majuro and other southern-latitude atolls,** including Rongelap control population
Leukemia	100	2.4	0.43	6.5	44	1.9	0.3	5.8	59	0.45	0.13	0.85
Thyroid	140	20	3.5	52	84	13	2.3	34	54	6.7	1.2	18
Stomach	420	2	0.29	5.7	140	0.89	0.13	2.6	280	1.1	0.16	3.2
Colon	690	4.8	1.6	9.8	220	2	0.68	4.5	460	2.8	0.92	5.7
Other solid	6,500	31	6.9	68	2,500	17	4.6	35	4,000	15	2.8	33
Total	7,800	60	13	140	3,000	34	8	82	4,800	26	5.2	60
Entire Marshall Islands population exposed between 1948 and 1970
Leukemia	140	7.4	1.3	20	59	6	0.94	17	81	1.4	0.37	2.6
Thyroid	190	51	12	120	110	35	7.9	85	74	15	3.9	36
Stomach	570	6.6	0.94	20	190	3.1	0.43	9.4	380	3.6	0.51	11
Colon	930	16	5.5	33	300	7.2	2.4	15	630	9.3	0.9	5.9
Other solid	8,800	90	24	180	3,400	54	16	110	5,400	36	8.6	71
Total	11,000	170	44	380	4,000	110	27	240	6,600	65	14	130

^*Ailuk, Kwajalein, Likiep, Mejit, Ujelang (population relocated from Enewetak), Wotho, and Wotje

^**Ailinglaplap, Arno, Aur, Ebon, Jaluit, Kili (population relocated from Bikini), Lae, Lib, Majuro, Maleolap, Mili, Namorik, Namu, and Ujae