Table 5.

Projected proportion (in %) of total cancer risk attributable to radioactive fallout, by population, cancer site, and time period. Uncertainty distributions represented by their means and 90% uncertainty bounds.

Population group and cancer type	Lifetime Attributable Risk (%)			Attributable Risk (%) 1948–2008			Attributable Risk (%) from 2009
	Mean	5%	95%	Mean	5%	95%	Mean	5%	95%
Rongelap Island community (cohort exposed on Rongelap Island in 1954)
Leukemia	78	39	91	83	43	93	63	29	77
Thyroid	95	87	97	95	85	97	95	91	97
Stomach	48	11	73	44	9.2	71	52	13	77
Colon	64	36	78	60	32	75	68	40	81
Other solid	43	20	54	48	23	61	32	17	43
Total	55	28	69	59	30	73	47	26	62
Utrik community
Leukemia	19	4.3	45	26	5.4	57	9.0	2.5	17
Thyroid	71	32	86	69	29	86	74	35	87
Stomach	4.8	0.64	14	4.5	0.63	12	5.0	0.67	17
Colon	9.4	3.2	19	8.4	2.8	17	10	3.1	21
Other solid	6.7	1.5	14	6.8	1.8	15	6.5	1.1	14
Total	10	2.4	22	11	2.7	25	9.0	1.8	19
Kwajalein and other mid-latitude atolls
Leukemia	8.4	1.7	20	15	2.9	36	2.9	0.75	5.5
Thyroid	25	6.1	45	28	7.0	49	21	5.1	39
Stomach	1.9	0.26	5.7	2.8	0.37	8.5	1.5	0.20	4.3
Colon	2.3	0.73	4.8	3.3	1.1	6.6	1.8	0.57	3.8
Other solid	1.4	0.34	2.9	2.3	0.60	4.6	0.96	0.20	2.0
Total	2.2	0.50	4.8	3.5	0.86	7.9	1.4	0.30	3.0
Majuro and other southern-latitude atolls, including Rongelap control population
Leukemia	2.2	0.41	6.0	4.2	0.67	12	0.76	0.22	1.4
Thyroid	12	2.5	27	13	2.7	29	11	2.2	25
Stomach	0.47	0.069	1.3	0.63	0.089	1.8	0.39	0.058	1.2
Colon	0.69	0.23	1.4	0.90	0.31	2.0	0.59	0.20	1.2
Other solid	0.48	0.11	1.0	0.65	0.18	1.4	0.37	0.071	0.81
Total	0.76	0.16	1.8	1.1	0.27	2.7	0.53	0.11	1.2
Entire Marshall Islands population exposed between 1948 and 1970
Leukemia	5.1	0.96	12	9.3	1.6	23	1.7	0.46	3.1
Thyroid	21	6.0	39	24	6.5	43	17	5.0	33
Stomach	1.2	0.17	3.4	1.6	0.23	4.7	0.94	0.14	2.8
Colon	1.7	0.59	3.4	2.4	0.80	4.9	1.4	0.14	0.93
Other solid	1.0	0.27	2.0	1.6	0.46	3.2	0.66	0.16	1.3
Total	1.6	0.41	3.4	2.6	0.67	5.6	0.99	0.22	1.9