Table 1.
Adult age-specific mortality rates per 1,000 person years (all-cause, men and women) from Kisesa cohort data and Spectrum model estimates
| 1994–1999 | 2000–2004 | 2005–2009 | ||||||||||
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| Empirical data | Spectrum estimate | Empirical data | Spectrum estimate | Empirical data | Spectrum estimate | |||||||
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| Age group | Number of deaths | Number of person years | Mortality rate (95% CI) | Mortality rate | Number of deaths | Number of person years | Mortality rate (95% CI) | Mortality rate | Number of deaths | Number of person years | Mortality rate (95% CI) | Mortality rate |
| Men | ||||||||||||
| 15–19 | 19 | 6,064 | 3.13 (2–4.91) | 3.06 | 19 | 6,275 | 3.03 (1.93–4.75) | 2.69 | 15 | 7,654 | 1.96 (1.18–3.25) | 2.31 |
| 20–24 | 19 | 4,716 | 4.03 (2.57–6.32) | 4.86 | 17 | 5,029 | 3.38 (2.1–5.44) | 4.23 | 20 | 5,229 | 3.82 (2.47–5.93) | 3.58 |
| 25–29 | 25 | 3,615 | 6.91 (4.67–10.23) | 7.51 | 24 | 4,089 | 5.87 (3.93–8.76) | 6.81 | 31 | 4,165 | 7.44 (5.23–10.58) | 5.60 |
| 30–34 | 49 | 3,312 | 14.80 (11.18–19.58) | 10.24 | 32 | 3,344 | 9.57 (6.77–13.53) | 10.09 | 28 | 4,096 | 6.84 (4.72–9.90) | 8.07 |
| 35–39 | 45 | 2,654 | 16.96 (12.66–22.71) | 13.95 | 33 | 2,922 | 11.30 (8.03–15.89) | 14.60 | 37 | 3,249 | 11.39 (8.25–15.72) | 11.85 |
| 40–44 | 21 | 1,903 | 11.04 (7.2–16.93) | 15.02 | 49 | 2,425 | 20.21 (15.27–6.74) | 16.14 | 31 | 2,744 | 11.30 (7.94–16.06) | 13.10 |
| 45–49 | 31 | 1,609 | 19.26 (13.55–27.39) | 15.38 | 31 | 1,688 | 18.36 (12.91–26.11) | 16.09 | 25 | 2,254 | 11.09 (7.49–16.41) | 13.55 |
| 50–54 | 25 | 1,333 | 18.76 (12.68–27.76) | 15.29 | 25 | 1,290 | 19.39 (13.1–28.69) | 14.90 | 31 | 1,563 | 19.83 (13.94–28.19) | 12.73 |
| 55–59 | 23 | 1,005 | 22.89 (15.21–34.44) | 25.15 | 24 | 1,093 | 21.95 (14.71–32.75) | 23.61 | 21 | 1,147 | 18.31 (11.94–28.08) | 19.97 |
| 60 + | 126 | 2,387 | 52.79 (40.33–69.79) | 62.28 | 138 | 2,500 | 55.20 (42.35–71.80) | 59.95 | 135 | 2,801 | 48.20 (36.34–63.88) | 56.86 |
| Women | ||||||||||||
| 15–19 | 10 | 5,265 | 1.90 (1.02–3.53) | 2.59 | 19 | 5,774 | 3.29 (2.1–5.16) | 2.23 | 17 | 6,881 | 2.47 (1.54–3.97) | 1.80 |
| 20–24 | 35 | 4,983 | 7.02 (5.04–9.78) | 4.81 | 28 | 4,954 | 5.65 (3.9–8.19) | 4.23 | 10 | 5,310 | 1.88 (1.01–3.5) | 3.43 |
| 25–29 | 35 | 4,164 | 8.40 (6.03–11.71) | 8.97 | 36 | 4,572 | 7.87 (5.68–10.92) | 8.71 | 29 | 4,767 | 6.08 (4.23–8.75) | 6.82 |
| 30–34 | 46 | 3,598 | 12.78 (9.58–17.07) | 10.85 | 46 | 3,728 | 12.34 (9.24–16.47) | 12.17 | 25 | 4,423 | 5.65 (3.82–8.37) | 9.44 |
| 35–39 | 25 | 2,619 | 9.55 (6.45–14.13) | 12.15 | 40 | 3,164 | 12.64 (9.27–17.24) | 14.16 | 28 | 3,402 | 8.23 (5.68–11.92) | 11.87 |
| 40–44 | 22 | 2,059 | 10.69 (7.04–16.23) | 11.48 | 30 | 2,436 | 12.31 (8.61–17.61) | 13.04 | 25 | 2,995 | 8.35 (5.64–12.35) | 10.94 |
| 45–49 | 18 | 1,566 | 11.50 (7.24–18.25) | 14.00 | 21 | 1,884 | 11.15 (7.27–17.1) | 14.80 | 23 | 2,379 | 9.67 (6.42–14.55) | 12.35 |
| 50–54 | 19 | 1,368 | 13.89 (8.86–21.78) | 14.30 | 20 | 1,406 | 14.22 (9.18–22.04) | 13.74 | 19 | 1,733 | 10.97 (6.99–17.19) | 11.30 |
| 55–59 | 19 | 1,079 | 17.62 (11.24–27.62) | 13.84 | 20 | 1,186 | 16.87 (10.88–26.14) | 12.63 | 18 | 1,363 | 13.21 (8.32–20.97) | 10.71 |
| 60+ | 151 | 2,866 | 52.69 (40.21–69.00) | 55.60 | 132 | 3,113 | 42.40 (36.31–48.81) | 53.60 | 139 | 3,612 | 38.48 (33.45–4497) | 51.03 |