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. 2013 Nov 13;14(1):50–56. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(13)70304-9

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© 2014 Cauchemez et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY

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Alternative scenarios for animal-to-human and human-to-human transmission

(A–C) Illustrative epidemic trajectories (incidence of human infections occurring in each transmission generation of length T_G=12 days) consistent with the timing of clusters and data on returning non-resident traveller cases for R₀=0·3 (A), R₀=0·7 (B), and R₀=1·06 (C). (D) Proportion of human cases due to human-to-human transmission in the epidemic so far as a function of the reproduction number, for T_G=12 days. (E) Probability that current chains of transmission will be sustained for a finite period (1 year) as a function of the reproduction number, for T_G=12 days. See appendix for details.