Table 4. Feasibility of adaptive control strategies dynamically updated according to the evolution of simulated FMD epizootics.

	Control strategy
	SO	PS	PV	SPS	SPV	SPSV	SV
Direct costs
D0–D7 period	0.134 (28%)	0.180 (34%)	0.067 (30%)	0.329 (26%)	0.114 (39%)	0.153 (43%)	0.114 (29%)
D7–D14 period	0.134 (28%)	0.120 (23%)	0.069 (31%)	0.166 (13%)	0.076 (26%)	0.056 (16%)	0.093 (24%)
D14–D28 period	0.094 (19%)	0.111 (21%)	0.059 (26%)	0.282 (22%)	0.063 (22%)	0.079 (22%)	0.090 (23%)
D28–D56 period	0.074 (15%)	0.075 (14%)	0.024 (11%)	0.258 (21%)	0.030 (10%)	0.055 (15%)	0.068 (17%)
Residual variance	0.049 (10%)	0.040 (8%)	0.004 (2%)	0.219 (17%)	0.009 (3%)	0.016 (5%)	0.026 (7%)
Export losses
D0–D7 period	0.015 (12%)	0.013 (12%)	0.004 (13%)	0.051 (15%)	0.006 (15%)	0.009 (16%)	0.009 (29%)
D7–D14 period	0.015 (12%)	0.017 (15%)	0.005 (18%)	0.030 (9%)	0.006 (15%)	0.006 (11%)	0.011 (12%)
D14–D28 period	0.021 (17%)	0.025 (23%)	0.009 (34%)	0.073 (21%)	0.012 (29%)	0.013 (25%)	0.026 (29%)
D28–D56 period	0.032 (27%)	0.028 (26%)	0.07 (26%)	0.082 (24%)	0.012 (28%)	0.015 (28%)	0.026 (29%)
Residual variance	0.038 (32%)	0.025 (23%)	0.003 (9%)	0.108 (31%)	0.006 (14%)	0.010 (19%)	0.017 (19%)
Slaughtered herds
D0–D7 period	0.114 (31%)	0.114 (29%)	0.057 (37%)	0.221 (28%)	0.079 (39%)	0.112 (41%)	0.081 (26%)
D7–D14 period	0.081 (22%)	0.081 (22%)	0.036 (23%)	0.116 (14%)	0.047 (23%)	0.043 (16%)	0.074 (24%)
D14–D28 period	0.072 (19%)	0.088 (24%)	0.039 (26%)	0.181 (23%)	0.046 (23%)	0.061 (22%)	0.077 (25%)
D28–D56 period	0.060 (16%)	0.061 (16%)	0.018 (12%)	0.158 (20%)	0.023 (11%)	0.043 (16%)	0.057 (18%)
Residual variance	0.044 (12%)	0.033 (9%)	0.003 (2%)	0.122 (15%)	0.007 (4%)	0.014 (5%)	0.023 (7%)

Note: The table gives, for a given impact and for a specific control strategy, the parts of variance attributable to the epizootic evolution during specific periods, and to the intrinsic variability of epizootics (residual variance). The part of variance imputable to the initial conditions (place and date where the epizootic starts) is not considered here. Impacts correspond to three stakeholders: government (indicator: public costs), agro-food industry (indicator: export losses), and public opinion (indicator: number of slaughtered herds). SO: basic stamping-out strategy, PV: protective vaccination, PS: preemptive slaughter, SPV: selective protective vaccination, SPS: selective preemptive slaughter, SPSV: selective preemptive slaughter and protective vaccination, SV: suppressive vaccination. Impact indicators have been log-transformed.