Table 1.
Comparison of estimates of seroconversion rate (SCR) and duration of seropositivity to MSP1 19 using catalytic and superinfection models fitted to data from 12 villages/sites in Tanzania
|
Villages |
Altitude (meters) |
§ Catalytic model[5](1) |
§ Superinfection model (2) |
((2) – (1))*100 / (1) |
% change in Std. Err. |
Predicted EIR[18] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCR (Std. Err.) | SCR (Std. Err.) | % change in SCR | ||||
| Mgila |
375 |
0.1228 (0.0139) |
0.1451 (0.0116) |
18 |
-17 |
39.1002 |
| Kadando |
528 |
0.0959 (0.0104) |
0.1097 (0.0098) |
14 |
-6 |
16.3467 |
| Kambi ya Simba |
746 |
0.0753 (0.0067) |
0.0857 (0.0073) |
14 |
6 |
4.7182 |
| Ngulu |
832 |
0.0869 (0.0077) |
0.0980 (0.0080) |
13 |
4 |
2.8899 |
| Tamota |
1055 |
0.0574 (0.0061) |
0.0726 (0.0066) |
26 |
8 |
0.8107 |
| Goha |
1163 |
0.0239 (0.0028) |
0.0306 (0.0034) |
28 |
24 |
0.438 |
| Lambo |
1188 |
0.0099 (0.0017) |
0.0123 (0.0021) |
25 |
24 |
0.3799 |
| Funta |
1240 |
0.1033 (0.0108) |
0.1197 (0.0101) |
16 |
-7 |
0.2824 |
| Mpinji |
1445 |
0.0065 (0.0012) |
0.0083 (0.0015) |
27 |
29 |
0.0878 |
| Kilomeni |
1556 |
0.0046 (0.0010) |
0.0058 (0.0013) |
27 |
27 |
0.0466 |
| Kwadoe |
1564 |
0.0071 (0.0015) |
0.0092 (0.0019) |
29 |
29 |
0.0445 |
| Bwambo |
1598 |
0.0041 (0.0009) |
0.0054 (0.0012) |
31 |
30 |
0.0367 |
| Average |
|
|
22 |
|
|
|
| Reversion rate |
0.0139 (0.0029) |
0.0426 (0.0062) |
|
|
|
|
| Duration in years | 72 | 23 | ||||
§ The models were estimated using Stata software’s ml command; Standard errors were approximated to 4 decimal places but actual values were used in calculating the % change.