Table 2.
Modelled health impacts and estimated changes in stock annual space heating demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for different assumptions of decarbonisation of space heating energy supply
| Scenarios | Change in life years lived by population* | Change in stock annual space heating demand for ventilation (TWh) | Change in stock annual GHG emissions (Mt CO2e)† | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 years | 0-50 years | Over follow-up period | No further decarbonisation | Assuming 34% decarbonisation (2020 target) | Assuming 60% decarbonisation (2030 recommended target) | ||
| Scenario 1 (air tightness) | –5200 | –121 000 | –367 200 | –27 | –5.6 | –3.7 | –2.2 |
| Scenario 2 (air tightness+purpose-provided ventilation) | –1800 | –43 100 | –130 900 | –15 | –3.2 | –2.1 | –1.3 |
| Scenario 3 (as for scenario 2+MVHR) | 4000 | 21 500 | 54 000 | –22 | –4.5 | –3.0 | –1.8 |
| Scenario 4 (as for scenario 3+10% failures in MVHR) | –300 | –7000 | –21 300 | –22 | –4.5 | –3.0 | –1.8 |
Mt CO2e=megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent; TWh=terawatt hour; g/kWh=grammes per kilowatt hour; MVHR=mechanical ventilation and heat recovery systems.
*Figures rounded to nearest 100; negative figures indicate loss of life years.
†Assuming current carbon intensity of 208 g/kWh(38).