Table 3.
Sensitivity of health impacts to smoking prevalence and lung cancer mortality rate
| Scenarios | Health impact (change in life years over follow-up period)* | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current (2009) lung cancer mortality | 50% reduction from current (2009) lung cancer mortality | |||||
| Assumed smoking prevalence | Assumed smoking prevalence | |||||
| 21% (current) | 15% | 10% | 21% (current) (base case) | 15% | 10% | |
| Scenario 1 (air tightness) | –733 800 | –558 700 | –412 900 | –367 200 | –279 600 | –206 600 |
| Scenario 2 (air tightness+purpose-provided ventilation) | –261 700 | –199 300 | –147 200 | –130 900 | –99 700 | –73 600 |
| Scenario 3 (as for scenario 2+MVHR) | 108 100 | 82 300 | 60 800 | 54 000 | 41 100 | 30 400 |
| Scenario 4 (as for scenario 3+10% failures in MVHR) | –42 500 | –32 400 | –23 900 | –21 300 | –16 200 | –12 000 |
| Approximate % change in health impact relative to base case | 100 | 52 | 12 | 0 (base case) | –24 | –44 |
MVHR=mechanical ventilation and heat recovery systems.
*Figures rounded to nearest 100; negative figures indicate loss of life years.