Table 3. Age-varying incubation period distribution models fitted to experimental data on all host-age groups, Gamma, Erlang, and Exponential (k = 1): shape parameter k, parameters a, b, c in the rate parameter function of host age λ(t) given by (1b), and Deviance information criterion (DIC).

	Gamma				Erlang				Exponential
DIC	5075				5071				6075
	k	a	b	c	k	a	b	c	a	b	c
Mean	19.52	0.449	0.00403	0.0381		0.450	0.00403	0.0381	0.025	0.00424	0.0020
Mode	19.00	0.450	0.00405	0.0370	19	0.450	0.00405	0.0370	0.025	0.00425	0.0020
SD	1.26	0.034	0.00013	0.0025	1	0.035	0.00013	0.0026	0.005	0.00058	0.0002
q-2.5%	17.18	0.380	0.00379	0.0334	18	0.387	0.00378	0.0338	0.017	0.00317	0.0016
q-25%	18.63	0.427	0.00394	0.0362	19	0.426	0.00394	0.0364	0.021	0.00386	0.0019
Median	19.5	0.448	0.00402	0.0380	20	0.448	0.00403	0.0379	0.024	0.00419	0.0020
q-75%	20.38	0.471	0.00412	0.0397	20	0.473	0.00411	0.0396	0.027	0.00462	0.0021
q-97.5%	21.99	0.520	0.00427	0.0432	22	0.528	0.00427	0.0439	0.037	0.00553	0.0024
Confidence range (*)	4.81	0.140	0.00048	0.0098	4	0.141	0.00049	0.0101	0.020	0.00236	0.0008

(*) Confidence range = q-97.5 - q-2.5%.