Table 5. Risk of progression to symptomatic VL in individuals who seroconverted compared to individuals who did not seroconvert, calculated by groups with low, moderate or high rK39 titers at the time of seroconversion.
Cohort | rK 39 titre at time of 2nd sero survey | Total evaluated | Number of progressors (%) | Hazard ratio (95% CI) |
3: TMRC Old area | Negative | 10,264 | 14 (0.1) | ref. |
Moderately positive | 85 | 0 (0) | NA | |
Strongly positive | 50 | 1 (2.0) | 15.9 (2.1–121.4) | |
4: TMRC New area | Negative | 5,284 | 13 (0.3) | ref. |
Moderately positive | 416 | 1 (0.2) | 0.9 (0.1–7.1) | |
Strongly positive | 37 | 9 (24.3) | 123.9 (52.7–291.2) |
Please note: Individuals in the KALANET study (cohorts 1 and 2) are not included in this analysis of seroconversion because their serologic status was measured only once.