Table 5. Risk of progression to symptomatic VL in individuals who seroconverted compared to individuals who did not seroconvert, calculated by groups with low, moderate or high rK39 titers at the time of seroconversion.

Cohort	rK 39 titre at time of 2nd sero survey	Total evaluated	Number of progressors (%)	Hazard ratio (95% CI)
3: TMRC Old area	Negative	10,264	14 (0.1)	ref.
	Moderately positive	85	0 (0)	NA
	Strongly positive	50	1 (2.0)	15.9 (2.1–121.4)
4: TMRC New area	Negative	5,284	13 (0.3)	ref.
	Moderately positive	416	1 (0.2)	0.9 (0.1–7.1)
	Strongly positive	37	9 (24.3)	123.9 (52.7–291.2)

Please note: Individuals in the KALANET study (cohorts 1 and 2) are not included in this analysis of seroconversion because their serologic status was measured only once.