Table 3.

Multilevel Multinomial Regression Estimating Changes in Alcohol Use Over Time

	Abstinence vs. moderate use			Heavy use vs. moderate use
	Model 1a			Model 1b
Independent variables	Coefficient	p	OR	Coefficient	p	OR
Intercept	0.496	.000	1.642	−2.671	.002	0.069
Time-constant predictors
Baseline age	0.349	.000	1.417	−0.031	.733	0.970
Time-varying predictors
Time since baseline	0.307	.000	1.360	−0.144	.115	0.866
Self-rated ill healtha	0.173	.000	1.189	−0.021	.737	0.979
Functional impairmentb	0.201	.000	1.222	−0.140	.078	0.870
Social isolationc	−0.079	.013	0.924	0.241	.000	1.272
Nonmarried	−0.060	.081	0.942	0.130	.027	1.139
Nonworking	0.033	.372	1.034	0.071	.286	1.074
Nonsmoking	0.262	.000	1.300	−0.369	.000	0.691
Sedentarinessd	0.116	.001	1.123	0.107	.073	1.113
Interaction
Baseline age × Time	0.049	.124	1.050	−0.004	.963	0.996
Baseline age × Self-rated ill   health	−0.016	.637	0.984	−0.096	.131	0.908
Baseline age × Functional   impairment	0.049	.218	1.050	0.047	.590	1.048
Baseline age × Social isolation	0.110	.001	1.116	0.117	.035	1.124
Baseline age × Nonmarried	0.090	.008	1.094	−0.034	.539	0.996
Baseline age × Nonworking	−0.075	.059	0.928	−0.045	.508	0.956
Baseline age × Nonsmoking	−0.005	.899	0.995	−0.041	.394	0.959
Baseline age × Sedentariness	−0.036	.298	0.965	−0.000	.995	1.000
Random effects	Variable	p		Variable	p
Intercept	2.314	.000		1.430	>.50
Time slope	0.014	>.50		0.044	>.50

Note: OR = odds ratio. Models control for attrition and mortality status, gender, race, and education. In addition, all predictors were standardized as z scores before creating the interaction terms. The inferences drawn from these models use the robust standard errors produced by hierarchical linear modeling because they are somewhat tolerant of violations to the assumption of normally distributed response variables (Hox, 2002).

^aRange: 1 to 5, with higher scores equal to worse health.

^bRange: 1 to 4, with higher scores equal to more impairment.

^cRange: 1 to 6, with higher scores equal to more isolation.

^dRange: 1 to 4, with higher scores equal to less activity.