Table 2. Legal Cigarette Sales, Estimated Consumption, and Illicit Consumption, 1998–2010 (millions of packs).
Measure | 1998 | 2002 | 2006 | 2010 |
Estimated consumption | 2,008.69 | 3,201.59 | 2,594.88 | 2,569.38 |
Legal sales | 2,195.00 | 3,365.00 | 3,425.00 | 4,920.5 |
Net exports | 0.00 | 54.37 | 624.00 | 542.51 |
Consumption as proportion of legal sales (ratio) | 0.92 | 0.97 | 0.93 | 0.59 |
Illicit consumption (no underreporting) | –186.31 | –109.04 | –206.12 | –1,808.61 |
Illicit consumption (10% underreporting) | 14.56 | 211.12 | 53.37 | –1,551.67 |
Illicit consumption (20% underreporting) | 215.43 | 531.28 | 312.86 | –1,294.73 |
Illicit consumption (30% underreporting) | 416.30 | 851.44 | 572.34 | –1,037.80 |
Illicit consumption as share of total consumption (10% underreporting,%) | 0.66 | 5.90 | 1.53 | –46.06 |
Illicit consumption as share of total consumption (20% underreporting,%) | 8.94 | 13.64 | 8.37 | –35.71 |
Illicit consumption as share of total consumption (30% underreporting, %) | 15.94 | 20.19 | 14.32 | –26.73 |
For the estimated consumption to be equal to the legal sale, the underreporting is (%) | 9.28 | 3.41 | 7.94 | 70.39 |
Sources: Authors’ calculation from VLSS 1998, VNHS 2002, VHLSS 2006, GATS Vietnam 2010 and Vietnam Tobacco Association’s reports.